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The New York Yankees have been a pretty pedestrian baseball team since the middle of June. After a 50-17 start to the season, the Bombers are just 19-17 over their last 36 games. A prolonged stretch like that may look concerning on the surface, but considering they’re still 11.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays in the AL East, there’s no really no cause for panic in the Bronx, at least not yet. 

And despite their midsummer swoon, the Yankees still are posting gaudy numbers. The Bombers are scoring 6.1 runs per game and have posted a .345 wOBA, .792 OPS, and a 127 wRC+ since June 19. Those numbers are just about inline — and in some cases stronger — with their season-long metrics. 

What’s more impressive is that the Yankees are posting these kinds of numbers despite some relatively poor luck. Over this 36-game stretch, the Bombers have a .270 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), which ranks 28th out of 30 teams in the MLB. 

While the Yankees offense continues to hum along, the past six weeks have not been all that kind to the pitching staff. After posting an impressive-but-unsustainable 2.86 ERA through their first 67 games of the season, the Pinstripes have come back down to earth to the tune of a 3.97 ERA over their last 36 contests. 

New York’s 3.68 xFIP over the last 36 games does suggest that the Yankees have pitched better than their ERA suggests, but it doesn’t seem like a great idea to bet on that positive regression to show up on Monday night with Domingo German on the mound.

Making his third start of the season, it was thought that German could provide a boost to Aaron Boone’s staff and help to stabilize things as we begin to head for the stretch run. So far, the opposite has been true, as German has pitched to an 8.22 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and 5.05 xFIP over his first 7.2 innings of the season. 

Those performances do need context as they came against the Astros and Mets, and they were German’s first MLB appearances in nine months, but it’s hard to trust the 29-year-old to be effective against a potent Mariners offense when he’s still clearly trying to find his rhythm.

Marco Gonzales will draw the unenviable task of trying to navigate the Yankee lineup on Monday, and he could be in for a long night considering the Bombers have scored 25 runs over their last three games. 

Gonzales is a bit of an enigma as everything about his profile suggests he should get lit up on a nightly basis. Gonzales ranks in the second percentile in strikeouts, 53rd percentile in walk rate, and doesn’t induce all that many groundballs. Despite all that, Gonzales has posted a 3.66 ERA on the season and has logged 12 quality starts on the season.

Even if Gonzales can be tough to project, this matchup does seem to be a problem for him. Not only is the Yankees offense humming, but it ranks at the top of almost every metric against left-handed pitching this season. 

Considering that he’s yet to find his footing, it does not seem wise to back German as a chunky favorite. And the number on Gonzales — a flyball pitcher working in Yankee Stadium — is not high enough to be interesting. Instead, bettors can look to the total for some value as this pitching matchup has plenty of blow-up potential on Monday night.

The Bet: Over 9 runs