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We’ve cashed back-to-back previews by taking advantage of the recent heat wave that may have led to some high-scoring games.
Although Tuesday’s matchup between the Yankees and Mets didn’t necessarily produce the level of scoring we saw on Monday with the Padres and Tigers, I’m happy to book the win and move on to another day.
Wednesday’s action features another Subway Series clash as the Mets look to finish the sweep against the Yankees.
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Max Scherzer is in line to start for the Mets, while the Yankees will counter with Domingo Germán.
Scherzer and the Mets are as high as a -186 favorite, so bettors will have to pay a premium to back the home team.
If we turn to the total, it opened at eight and has already been bet down to seven at some sportsbooks. While I disagree with the market move once again, I think bettors can take a slightly different approach in targeting the total.
Yankees vs. Mets odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Moneyline: NYY (+150) vs. NYM (-185)
Spread: NYY +1.5 (-140) vs. NYM -1.5 (+115)
Total: Over 7 (-125) | Under 7 (+105)
Yankees vs. Mets probable pitchers
Domingo Germán (15.00) vs. Max Scherzer (2.28)
Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets celebrates his three-run home run with Starling Marte #6. Getty ImagesYankees vs. Mets prediction
Germán’s first start was one he’d like to forget after managing only three innings and allowing five runs last Thursday. The right-hander missed the first half of the season due to right shoulder impingement syndrome. What’s even more troubling is that Germán also missed time with a shoulder injury last summer.
Ideally, the Yankees would prefer to ease Germán back into action slowly. However, an injury to Luis Severino created an immediate void in the rotation that needed to be filled.
It’s fair to say that it doesn’t get much more challenging than having to step back on the mound and face the Astros and Mets in your first two games. Both teams rank in the top ten in terms of offense, as the Astros are fourth with a wRC+ value of 113, while the Mets are sixth with a value of 109.
Overall, the Mets’ current lineup has good numbers against Germán. Through 36 plate appearances, they have a .323 average with a .470 wOBA.
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This is a tough spot for Germán to now be up against Scherzer as the Yankees try to avoid a sweep.
With the Mets being such a heavy favorite, I don’t see the Yankees’ right-hander going toe-to-toe and matching innings with Scherzer.
Thus, if you like the Mets to win the game, we’re probably looking at something a little more than a 4-2 scoreline. That’s where looking at the Mets team total may offer some value.
At BetMGM, we can grab the Mets to score over 3.5 runs at -140 odds.
In Germán’s past three seasons, he finished with an HR/9 ratio greater than 1.50. And although the heatwave is starting to wane on the East Coast, we’re still looking at wind gusts around 10 MPH blowing out to left field in Queens.
I’d expect the Mets to have their hitting shoes on Wednesday, so I’ll look to the team total as my best bet in the series finale.
Yankees vs. Mets pick
Mets Team Total Over 3.5 runs (-140) — BetMGM
