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To assess whether there’s any value in making this type of wager, it helps to convert the odds into a percentage or implied probability, so you can compare your projection of the event occurring with what the sportsbook offers.
Aaron Judge Getty ImagesTo complete the conversion, we’ll enter our odds into the following equation: Implied Probability = 100 / (odds + 100). Thus, If we enter 900 as our odds, our equation becomes 100 / (900+ 100), resulting in 10%.
Now, if you look at the individual odds of both teams to win the pennant, we’ll find that the Yankees are priced at +145 and the Mets at +330.
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If we follow the same steps and enter those odds into our implied probability equation, we’ll find the Yankees have a 40.82% chance to win the pennant while the Mets have a 23.26% chance to win the National League.
What’s interesting is that multiplying both probabilities also gives you the likelihood that both events will occur together.
And if we enter those odds into our equation and multiply the percentage results, we’re left with a nine percent chance they will meet in the World Series. And if you convert this nine percent chance, you’ll find that your moneyline odds are +1011.
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Yet, our exacta matchup is giving an implied probability of 10% with odds at +900.
Thus, without getting into the weeds about the sportsbook’s hold percentage (percentage of money the sportsbook keeps for every dollar wagered), it’s clear that we’re not getting a fair market price at +900.







