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Fresh off a day off on Monday, the New York Yankees will head to Pittsburgh to take on the Pirates for a two-game series. New York is once again a heavy favorite with odds as high as -205 at some sportsbooks.
As for the Pirates, they’re more than capable of pulling off the upset after sweeping a three-game series on the road against the Dodgers in late May.
Let’s dive into the pitching matchup and assess whether we can find value on either side for Tuesday.
Yankees vs. Pirates odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Moneyline: NYY (-200) vs. PIT (+165)
Spread: NYY -1.5 (-120) vs. PIT +1.5 (+100)
Total: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Yankees vs. Pirates probable pitchers
Jameson Taillon (3.32) vs. José Quintana (3.43)
Anthony Rizzo Getty ImagesYankees vs. Pirates betting preview and prediction
New York comes into the game with a team win in Taillon’s past seven starts. Through 15 starts, the right-hander is 9-1 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. His advanced metrics are also favorable, given his 3.24 FIP and 3.67 xFIP.
Taillon spent his first four seasons in the majors with the Pirates before being traded to New York in 2021. As a result, he could have revenge on his mind with his first visit back to PNC Park.
Given Taillon’s current form, there’s no question that he should have the upper hand. He should also benefit from having just three encounters with Pirates’ hitters at the plate.
While Quintana has an ERA (3.43) comparable to Taillon’s, the left-hander hasn’t been able to have the same level of success in terms of wins. Quintana is 1-4 through 15 starts and has lost his past three decisions. His advanced numbers only point to a slight regression, evidenced by his 3.57 FIP and 3.86 xFIP.
Quintana’s head-to-head numbers when facing the Yankees lineup are also favorable. In 110 plate appearances, New York is hitting .219 with a .297 wOBA against him.
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After adjusting for the different circumstances in this game, my model makes the Yankees a -190 favorite. However, I’d need at least +175 to justify a play on the Pirates. Thus, given the current market odds, the prices aren’t favorable enough to warrant a recommendation on either side. And when I look at the total, strong arguments can be made for either the over or the under.
For example, the total is 5-0 to the under with the Yankees as visitors in an interleague game vs. a left-handed starter. The under is also on a 4-0 run when Taillon starts the next game after the Yankees are held to two or fewer runs.
Oneil Cruz, Pirates Getty ImagesHowever, the over is 7-0-1 in Taillon’s last eight starts on a Tuesday. The over is also a perfect 4-0 when the Yankees are in a game where the visiting team comes off one day’s rest with an opening total between 8.5 and 9.
One play that might offer some value is to back the Pirates on the five-inning runline (+0.5 / -105).
According to our ActionLabs database, New York is just 9-15 this season for a loss of 6.10 units when facing a left-handed starter.
Yankees vs. Pirates pick
Lean Pirates F5 RL +0.5 (-105) — BetMGM
