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Oh man, do we have a treat tonight in Tampa.
The Yankees come off of sweeping the Rays at home last week and winning two of three against the Blue Jays.
Tonight’s game features two of the very best pitchers that baseball has to offer: 2022 AL Cy Young favorite Shane McClanahan vs. 2021 AL Cy Young runner-up Gerrit Cole.
Below we dive into the stats of each pitcher and give a pick for this highly entertaining AL East battle.
Yankees vs. Rays odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: NYY -1.5 (+140) vs. TB +1.5 (-175)
Moneyline: NYY (-135) vs. TB (+110)
Total: Over 6.5 (-110) | Under 6.5 (-110)
Yankees vs. Rays probable pitchers
Shane McClanahan (7-3, 1.84) vs. Gerrit Cole (8-1, 3.33)
Gerrit Cole Getty ImagesYankees vs. Rays prediction
All stats are courtesy of FanGraphs
This pitchers matchup is truly something to behold, with both hurlers near the top in Cy Young conversations. Cole hasn’t been quite as unhittable; he has allowed five or more earned runs in two of his last five starts.
However, in those other three starts, he’s looked dominant, giving up just one combined run in 19 innings and logging 26 strikeouts.
His matchup with young stud Shane McClanahan is something to behold. McClanahan’s peripheral stats show that he is every bit as elite as his stats say. His 2.72 FIP ranks ninth-best in all of baseball and he has the second-best strikeouts per nine innings, just short of Dylan Cease.
We know that runs are going to be tough to come by, but this total of 6.5 is the lowest it has been this season for the Yankees, who average a league-best, 5.15 runs per game by themselves. 6.5 does feel like an overcorrection, but the Yankees did play to a 2-0 win the last time Cole was on the mound opposite Corey Kluber.
For now, that is enough to scare me off of an ‘over’ bet for tonight’s game. Instead, we look at Cole, who dominated the Rays in two starts this season to the tune of a 1-0 record with 17 strikeouts in 12 innings (0.75 ERA).
Shane McClanahan Getty ImagesMcClanahan is a phenomenal pitcher, but the Yankees lineup is so much better than the Rays, making it difficult to back Tampa Bay to win the game. However, the salient stats for picking this game are Cole’s home/away splits.
On the road, Cole has a 4.60 ERA in 29.1 innings pitched this season. His 4.66 FIP shows these are legitimate concerns, whereas McClanahan dominates at home (2.00 ERA, 2.48 FIP).
The Rays to win the first five innings is the play tonight as this negates having to trust their bullpen late against the Yankees’ vaunted lineup.
Yankees vs. Rays pick
Tampa Bay Rays F5 moneyline (+110) BetMGM
