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This weekend’s series between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox has a different kind of feel to it. Of course, anytime these eternal rivals meet it will get tongues wagging – especially when they’re first and second in the division – but the gulf between Boston and New York is so wide right now that these games just don’t pack the usual pizzazz. That said, a strong showing from the Red Sox over the next 10 days — during which the Yanks and Sox will play seven times — could create some drama in the AL East.

A win on Thursday night – the first game between these two teams since the season-opening series – would be a good start for the Red Sox. Unfortunately for them, bookmakers have the Yanks as -178 favorites at Fenway Park.

Those odds could seem a bit jarring given that this is a rivalry game and the Red Sox are at home, but the pitching matchup severely favors the Yankees with Gerrit Cole taking on 24-year-old rookie Josh Winckowski. 

Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook

Spread: NYY -1.5 (-105) vs. BOS +1.5 (-115)

Moneyline: NYY (-170) vs. BOS (+143)

Total: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

While Winckowski’s surface-level numbers – he’s got a 3.12 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 26 innings – are impressive for a debutante, he hasn’t faced an elite offense like the Yankees just yet. His five outings this season came against the White Sox, Orioles, A’s, Guardians and Tigers. 

So far, Winckowski profiles as a pitcher who relies on his ability to induce weak contact rather than rack up the strikeouts. The former 15th-round pick has punched out 19 batters in 26 innings, which isn’t eye-popping but will play when you blend in his 56.1% ground ball rate and 0.35 HR/9. 

Winckowski will have his work cut out for him not only against the Yankee offense, but he’ll need to keep pace with Gerrit Cole. And even though Cole has had his struggles in Beantown and is a better pitcher at home than on the road, his overall body of work this season sparkles. Cole owns a 2.99 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through 93.1 innings of work and his peripheral numbers (2.99 xERA and 2.89 xFIP) show that he’s earned every bit of his statline this season.

The Red Sox caught fire in June, winning 20 of 26 games, to get themselves back into the playoff chase. But Yankees basically answered them every step of the way. New York is just at a different level compared to its longtime rival right now. 

With an offense that hasn’t been stopped all season and a pitching matchup that could turn ugly, the Yankees make a good candidate for a bet on the alternate runline on Thursday night.

Alternate spread – Yankees -2.5 (+140) via Caesars Sportsbook