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In many parts of the country, we’re currently on the cusp of member-guest season. The PGA Tour is no different — although this week’s Zurich Classic is decidedly more member-member than member-guest.
It’s difficult to find a trend through just four editions of a partnered event (this format began in 2017 and the 2020 edition was canceled), but if there’s a common theme we should chase this week, it might have nothing to do with analytics.
Anyone who bets on team sports — or just watches team sports — understands that some winning squads are greater than the sum of their parts, while others own more talent than the overall record suggests.
The reason for this? Well, in the immortal words of Homer Simpson, it might’ve just been a bunch of stuff that happened.
As much as we search for some sort of rationale, it doesn’t always exist.
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In this scenario, though, I’ll go with another option: teams often win or lose based on chemistry, which doesn’t always mean that teammates need to be BFFs.
Instead, players who complement each other can find more success. That’s what we’ve found in the early years of the Zurich being a two-man tourney.
Those who have a prior relationship — who play a lot of practice rounds together and enjoy each other’s company — have been more likely to find their way onto a leaderboard than those who had an arranged partnership through their agents, or are simply paired with someone else who didn’t have a dance partner.
This week’s edition of the Zurich will feature 80 of these two-man teams, playing best-ball in the first and third rounds, then alternate shot in the second and final. The top 33 (and ties) through two rounds will make the cut.
The pre-tournament odds of winning teams have decreased every year so far — starting with 100/1 in 2017, then moving to 40/1, 16/1 and 12/1 — but there remains some value in looking a bit further down the board.
That’s where I’ll start my card, with a duo who should have both some intangibles and analytics on their side.
Outright Winner
Keegan Bradley and Brendan Steele (33/1): For a few different reasons, I’ll eschew some of the bigger names this week in favor of an outright play on a pair of players who have been knocking on the door recently.
First off, they’re good friends who play practice rounds together every week they’re both in the field. We don’t have to worry about camaraderie here; they finished in a share of fourth place just last year.
Keegan Bradley and Brendan Steele talk during the 2014 PGA Championship. Getty ImagesThen there’s the actual golf.
These are two of the better drivers of the ball — Steele ranks sixth and Bradley ranks 27th — and their prowess off the tee should at least offer plenty of birdie chances during the week.
After five straight MCs earlier this year, Steele has played much better lately, while Bradley owns three finishes of 11th or better in his last five starts.
I expect plenty of birdies from this twosome, and enough mojo to put them right in the mix come Sunday afternoon.
Top-Five finish
Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland (+175): If I’m picking a winner with a bit of a bigger price, then I like to back it with a more cautious selection for top five. This one is as cautious as it gets.
Morikawa and Hovland are both top-five players with a ton of win equity on their own in individual events, which means their top-five equity, if you will, is even greater.
Granted, it’s a (very) short number, but there are fewer total competitors in this field than most others, and you can use this wager to counterbalance some long-shot plays elsewhere.
Top-10 finish
Keith Mitchell and Brandt Snedeker (4/1): When they played together last year — finishing in a share of fourth place — Snedeker raved about his partner, calling it one of the better performances off the tee that he’d ever witnessed.
I’ve been extremely bullish on Mitchell myself this year, and I think he’s due (or perhaps overdue) for a serious title contention.
In Snedeker, he gets a steady veteran presence who keeps the ball in play and can get hot with the flatstick. Don’t be surprised if they match last year’s result — or even surpass it.




