BLONDE FAITH
ON TV, crime pays big time — unless you’re talking about “Without a Trace” and “Cold Case.”
Both long-running cop dramas are currently “on the bubble,” the precarious position of not knowing if they will be cancelled at the end of this season.
Both have large, loyal audiences — currently hovering just under the 12 million viewer mark. Those are ratings other networks would kill for.
Since the network is doing well and both “Without a Trace” and “Cold Case” have experienced “audience erosion” over the past few years, the network “might want to pull the shows a year early — rather than a year too late — as a strategy,” says industry analyst Brad Adgate of Horizon Media.
The loss of two popular shows like that will not go down well with viewers, but that’s another story.
With the success of new series “The Mentalist” and continued ratings spikes from standbys like “NCIS,” the three “CSI” shows and “Criminal Minds,” CBS has “had such a good season that they probably don’t have too many [schedule] holes to fill,” says Adgate.
Missing-persons drama “Without a Trace,” which premiered in 2002, reached a series high during its third year, with 18.68 million viewers a week. Now, it’s averaging 11.9 million viewers per episode.
It’s the same story for “Cold Case,” which began in 2003. The series peaked with 15.1 million viewers in its second season, dropping down to 11.6 million this year.
Part of the reason for the hesitation on renewing the series is their high cost, especially in this economy.
Hour-long dramas like “Without a Trace” and “Cold Case” are estimated to cost as much as $2.5 to $3 million per episode to make.
Adgate says that the reason CBS is scrutinizing the series so closely could be because the network believes it’s not getting enough of a return on its investment — or that other shows might be less expensive to produce or snare more viewers.
“It’s always good to bring in new shows and new hits,” Adgate says.
“Any time you can have a great program development year, it’s a feather in [a network’s] cap — because the shows will be around for years and you can build around them,” he adds.
Canceling established shows on the wane would give potential new series including an “NCIS” spin-off starring LL COOL J and Chris O’Donnell and “Miami Trauma,” a Jerry Bruckheimer-produced medical series, a “safe time period with a strong lead-in and possibly weaker competition,” Adgate says.
“Networks do it all the time. Sure, there’s a big risk involved and you’ve got potential backlash from viewers who are loyal to these shows, but no TV shows last forever.”
What You’ll Likely See Instead
‘Miami Trauma“– Jeremy Northam (“The Tudors”) in a hospital drama about a team of trauma surgeons.
“The Good Wife” — Legal drama from “Numb3rs” producers about a politician’s wife (Julianna Margulies) hired as a junior associate at a law firm.
“Back” — Skeet Ulrich (“Jericho”) is a man trying to reconnect with friends and family eight years after being reported missing on Sept. 11.
