If you want to know just how the coming Oscar chads will hang, check out tonight’s Golden Globe awards, one of the best indicators of who will take home Hollywood’s coveted gold statuettes in March.

The Globes, which go out three weeks before the Feb. 13 Oscar nominations, are handed out by the 90 or so professional freeloaders of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

Up until the mid-1990s, little attention was paid to the picks of these L.A.-based journalists, who have a reputation for accepting lavish studio freebies. But now the Golden Globes event has not only attained prestige, it’s often a spot-on forecast of the Oscars.

Last year, for example, the Globes matched the Oscars in three of the four top categories: Best Picture (“American Beauty”), Best Director (Sam Mendes) and Best Actress (Hilary Swank). Only in the Best Actor contest did they split (the Globe went to Denzel Washington; the Oscar, to Kevin Spacey.)

And in four of the past five years, the Globes’ choice for Best Drama or Best Comedy took the Best Picture Oscar.

That’s enough reason to pay close attention, even if the HFPA complicates things by dividing – sometimes quite whimsically – its Best Picture and Best Actor categories between drama and comedy/drama.

Here are the likely winners in the top three categories:

BEST PICTURE

In the drama category, I’m going with Ridley Scott’s Roman epic, Gladiator. Defending champ DreamWorks (“American Beauty”) is campaigning on behalf of this old-fashioned classic in the mold of recent Globe winners like “Braveheart” and “Titanic.”

But I wouldn’t be shocked if Erin Brockovich or red-hot director Steven Soderbergh’s other 2000 hit, the drug drama Traffic, won. There’s not much hope for either Billy Elliot or the black comedy Wonder Boys (bizarrely labeled a drama).

The fifth nominee, Sunshine, made it this far only because Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon was disqualified for Globe honors as it’s in Mandarin – a rule that doesn’t apply to the Oscars.

In the comedy/musical division, the likely win by Lasse Hallstrom’s fantasy Chocolat may be a prelude to a Best Picture nomination for this heavily promoted Miramax release – just like the 1999 victory in this category by Miramax’s “Shakespeare in Love” helped pave the way for its Oscar upset of “Saving Private Ryan,” which won the Globe in the drama division that year.

Of course, the HFPA may surprise us by reviving the Oscar chances of Cameron Crowe’s superb coming-of-age comedy Almost Famous. The other nominees, Chicken Run, Best in Show and O Brother, Where Art Thou?, don’t have much of a shot.

BEST ACTOR

Tom Hanks’ bravura performance in “Cast Away” is the 8,000-pound gorilla here, and I predict he’ll take the Globe, which would help bolster the chances that the movie, which didn’t get a Best Picture nod from the HFPA, will get one from Oscar. But there’s a theory that enough is enough for Hanks, already a two-time Oscar winner.

If he loses, the backup might well be Michael Douglas of Wonder Boys, who also scores points for providing marquee value to “Traffic.” The others, in order of probability: Javier Bardem, “Before Night Falls”; Russell Crowe, “Gladiator”; and Geoffrey Rush, “Quills.”

As usual, the comedy/musical category is meaningless. It would be sort of surrealistically appropriate for Jim Carrey to three-peat for “Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas,” as he previously won for “The Truman Show” and “Man on the Moon” (neither of which earned an Oscar nomination). A more likely scenario would be Robert De Niro for “Meet the Parents,” though Mel Gibson could score points for wearing pantyhose in “What Women Want.”

The also-rans: John Cusack (“High Fidelity”) and George Clooney (“O Brother, Where Art Thou?”).

BEST ACTRESS

In drama, put your money on Julia Roberts for “Erin Brockovich.” There’s a distant possibility that Ellen Burstyn (“Requiem for a Dream”) could benefit from Julia fatigue (she’s led the field for 10 months).

They’re not going to give the award to Bjork (“Dancer in the Dark”) any more than they’ll pick Joan Allen (“The Contender”) or Laura Linney (“You Can Count on Me”).

In comedy/musical, a win by Juliette Binoche seems like another setup for “Chocolat.” If the HFPA says no to Miramax’s sugary confection, a win by Sandra Bullock for “Miss Congeniality” could foreshadow a surprise Oscar nomination.

There’s not a prayer for Renee Zellweger (“Nurse Betty”), Brenda Blethyn (“Saving Grace”) or Tracey Ullman (“Small Time Crooks”).