NICHOLSON, Caine, Kidman, Streep.A lot of familiar names are circulating – often in more than one category – in this year’s Oscar acting races, which are a lot less murky than the Best Picture contest.
Here’s a category-by-category rundown of the shoo-ins, likely contenders and the wild cards.
ACTOR
SHOO-INS: Jack Nicholson, “About Schmidt,” Michael Caine, “The Quiet American.”
LIKELY: Daniel Day-Lewis, “Gangs of New York,” Tom Hanks, “Road to Perdition,” Derek Luke, “Antwone Fisher.”
WILD CARDS: Edward Norton, “25th Hour,” Leonardo DiCaprio, “Catch Me if You Can,” Adrien Brody, “The Pianist,” Sam Rockwell, “Confessions of a Dangerous Mind,” Campbell Scott, “Roger Dodger.”
THE BUZZ: This is shaping up as a battle between the two veterans: three-time winner Nicholson, who’s a lock for a 13th nomination for playing a world-weary retiree, vs. Caine, who has two supporting trophies on the mantle, having his best shot ever at the top prize as a world-weary war correspondent.
Early audiences agree Day-Lewis’ brutal bad guy is the best thing in “Gangs,” but he may turn out to be a ‘tweener – it’s neither a lead nor a supporting role.
And though newcomer Luke has a lot of buzz as a troubled Navy man who triumphs over adversity, very few debuts have ever been nominated in this category – let alone won.
ACTRESS
SHOO-INS: Julianne Moore, “Far From Heaven,” Nicole Kidman, “The Hours,” Meryl Streep, “The Hours.”
LIKELY: Renee Zellweger, “Chicago,” Nia Vardalos, “My Big Fat Greek Wedding.”
WILD CARDS: Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Secretary,” Salma Hayek, “Frida,” Diane Lane, “Unfaithful.”
THE BUZZ: With her two co-stars – Kidman dons a false nose as Virginia Woolf, Streep plays a modern day Mrs. Dalloway – splitting “The Hours” vote (she’s in the supporting category for that movie), this is Moore’s race to lose as a ’50s suburban Job in a mink coat in “Far From Heaven.”
That’s barring a sweep by the more crowd-pleasing “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” or “Chicago” – whose lead actresses both get marks for their pluck. There’s often a surprise in this category, and they typically involve newcomers like Gyllenhaal, who gets major props for playing a masochist so sweetly.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
SHOO-INS: Ed Harris, “The Hours,” Chris Cooper, “Adaptation.”
LIKELY: Paul Newman, “Road to Perdition,” Dennis Quaid, “Far From Heaven.”
WILD CARDS: Ray Liotta, “Narc,” Tom Hanks, “Road to Perdition,” Alfred Molina, “Frida,” John C. Reilly, “Chicago.”
THE BUZZ: This is the most competitive acting race, with a collection of extremely showy roles – except for Reilly in one of his patented dopey-husband parts, who may nevertheless benefit from a “Chicago” sweep.
Sentiment says that Cooper, Quaid, Liotta and Molina – four worthy veterans who’ve never been nominated – are more deserving than Hanks, Newman and Harris. But history suggests things often don’t work out that way.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
SHOO-INS: Kathy Bates, “About Schmidt,” Catherine Zeta-Jones, “Chicago.”
LIKELY: Julianne Moore, “The Hours,” Patricia Clarkson, “Far From Heaven,” Cameron Diaz, “Gangs of New York.”
WILD CARDS: Meryl Streep, “Adaptation,” Samantha Morton, “Minority Report,” Bebe Neuwirth, “Tadpole.”
THE BUZZ: Kathy Bates takes off her clothes and provides much-needed laughs in her rather grim comedy. But she may not be able to hold off Zeta-Jones, who steals “Chicago” as Velma Kelly by virtue of the fact she’s the only one of the leads who can actually sing and dance worth a lick.
While it would be delicious to see Zeta-Jones face off against Neuwirth – who won a Tony in the role on Broadway but lost it in the movie – it’s doubtful Miramax, the studio releasing both films, will spend the money needed to help achieve this ironic outcome.
