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1. “Up in the Air” * Pros: Whip-smart script deftly balances romance with recession-era layoffs; sure-handed direction by Jason Reitman; surefire nominations for George Clooney and Vera Farmiga. * Cons: September bow at festivals led to inevitable front-runner status and backlash; box office may suffer because of antipathy toward ultra-liberal Clooney in flyover states.

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2. “The Hurt Locker” * Pros: Best movie to come out of the Iraq war so far; year’s strongest effort by a female director, Kathryn Bigelow; critical fave. * Cons: Resolutely apolitical stance may irk left-leaning academy; it was released way back in May and the distributor, Summit, has been slow on the draw in sending out screeners.

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3. “Avatar” * Pros: James Cameron’s first picture since “Titanic,” which won 11 Oscars; visually stunning and thrilling; almost certainly a box-office smash. * Cons: Roughly 60 percent of the film is motion-capture animation, not hugely popular with actors or animators; familiar situations and some cheesy dialogue; academy resistance to sci-fi. 20th Century Fox Licensing/Merch

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4. “Precious” * Pros: Devastating emotional experience with excellent performances; strong support from critics. * Cons: Building backlash, with some complaining it traffics in ugly stereotypes; Mo’Nique, who gives the strongest performance, is reluctant to campaign; pretty much a love-it-or-hate-it proposition.

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5. “Invictus” * Pros: Academy loves director Clint Eastwood and star Morgan Freeman, and it has a longstanding proclivity for historic and feel-good sports pics. * Cons: Overly long; not quite up to the level of Clint’s previous Oscar winners, “Unforgiven” and “Million Dollar Baby.” Keith Bernstein

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6. “Inglourious Basterds” * Pros: Never underestimate a film involving Harvey Weinstein and Nazis (see last year’s “The Reader”); academy often loves movies about movies and may be ready to welcome Quentin Tarantino back into the fold. * Cons: Some older members don’t find his comic-book approach to history, or his spelling, all that funny; it was released in August. ©Weinstein Company/Courtesy Ever

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7. “Up” * Pros: Arguably the best-written movie of the year, and the greatest artistic achievement among all the Pixar masterpieces; it will be difficult to come up with 10 worthy live-action nominees for the category. * Cons: Only one animated feature, “Beauty and the Beast,” has ever been nominated for Best Picture, and that was before there was a separate category for Best Animated Feature.

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8. “The Blind Side” * Pros: Surprise hit plays well to the flyover states; much respect for Sandra Bullock’s belated emergence as a superstar at age 45; a racially themed alternative to “Precious” for the squeamish. * Cons: Some claim it’s just as racist as “Precious”; is there room for two sports movies (this and “Invictus”) even in a field of 10? Ralph Nelson

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9. “Julie & Julia” * Pros: Lots of love for Meryl Streep’s delightful Julia Child; a popular comeback for writer-director Nora Ephron, an elder Hollywood stateswoman. * Cons: Amy Adams’ blogger Julie is a whiny drag; film released in August.

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10. “Nine” * Pros: Sympathy for struggling Harvey Weinstein’s all-star, Hail Mary pass; voters’ nostalgia for near-extinct musicals; another movie about movies, with a Fellini pedigree. * Cons: Some dire box-office predictions; miscast lead, Daniel Day-Lewis; much-hyped “Dreamgirls” didn’t get a Best Pic nom. Photo Credit: David James

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