Football expert Phil Steele is the owner and publisher of Phil Steele’s College Football Preview, regarded as the college football bible. Get in-depth coverage of college and pro football 24/7/365 at PhilSteele.com.

BENGALS (-6¹/₂) over Panthers: What happens when one team is embarrassed on Sunday night football and their opponent is off a misleading come-from-behind win? It’s called line value as the results kept the Bengals as less than a touchdown favorite. Cincinnati returns home where it has won and covered 11 straight regular-season games, and the Bengals have won their last four by 17 points per game coming off of a loss.The Bengals defense plays “bend-but-don’t-break” as it ranks 27th in yards allowed but sixth in defense. That doesn’t bode well for a not-100-percent Cam Newton and an offense that gains only 5.3 yards per play, ranking among the NFL’s worst. Lastly, the Bengals have the league’s best pass defense, allowing only 56.6-percent completions. That isn’t a factor if your rush attack is solid, but the Panthers’ isn’t, as their top two running backs missed last week and are questionable here.

Patriots/BILLS Under 45¹/₂: There is only one game this week in the NFL matching a pair of top 12 defenses. There is also only one game in which both offenses rank No. 20 or worse. This game features both, the AFC East leaders at 3-2, which usually translates to a more conservative offense trying to stay error-free. The Patriots’ offense has struggled, averaging 16 first downs in their three road games, while the Bills have averaged fewer than 16 first downs at home.

LAST WEEK (NFL): 2-0
SEASON: 7-3