There is no formula for drafting a quarterback.
This will be on display again on April 26 when as many as six quarterbacks are projected to go in the first round and four might go in the top 10.
This college quarterback class has been heralded as one of the best in years. Yet, there is no consensus on who is the best quarterback in this class, and there is no predicting how any of these quarterbacks will fare as professionals.
With the Giants and Jets possibly primed to select quarterbacks next week, The Post examined some of the characteristics of the top 15 current NFL quarterbacks (based on average QBR over past three seasons) displayed coming out of college to see if anything could be gleaned from it and how the top four quarterbacks in this year’s draft compare. Here is what we found:
Tom BradyGetty ImagesTop 15 NFL QBs used for comparisons
Based on average QBR from past three seasons (In alphabetical order)
Tom Brady, Patriots
Drew Brees, Saints
Kirk Cousins, Vikings
Andrew Luck, Colts
Carson Palmer, retired (Cards) this year
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Philip Rivers, Chargers
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
Matt Ryan, Falcons
Alex Smith, Redskins
Matthew Stafford, Lions
Tyrod Taylor, Browns
Carson Wentz, Eagles
Russell Wilson, Seahawks
Josh AllenAPHeight
Tallest
Carson Palmer 6-5
Philip Rivers 6-5
Ben Roethlisberger 6-5
Carson Wentz 6-5
Tom Brady 6-4
Andrew Luck 6-4
Matt Ryan 6-4
Alex Smith 6-4
Shortest
Dak Prescott 6-2
Aaron Rodgers 6-2
Tyrod Taylor 6-1
Drew Brees 6-0
Russell Wilson 5-11
Prospects
Josh Allen 6-5
Sam Darnold 6-4
Josh Rosen 6-4
Baker Mayfield 6-0
Analysis: Most of the top QBs are big. It helps them see clearly over the line and down the field. Big QBs are also tougher to take down, as Roethlisberger has shown over the past 14 seasons. However, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees have shown that smaller quarterbacks can succeed.
In this year’s group, Mayfield measures a shade under 6-foot-1, which is one of the biggest concerns team have about him. On the other side, scouts love Allen’s size. He has drawn comparisons to Roethlisberger and Wentz because of his large frame.
Hand size
Josh RosenGetty ImagesBiggest
Dak Prescott 10 7/8
Drew Brees 10 ¼
Russell Wilson 10 ¼
Andrew Luck 10
Matthew Stafford 10
Tyrod Taylor 10
Carson Wentz 10
Smallest
Carson Palmer 9 ½
Matt Ryan 9 ¹/₂
Aaron Rodgers 9 3/8
Alex Smith 9 3/8
Philip Rivers 9 ¼
Prospects
Josh Allen 10 1/8
Josh Rosen 9 7/8
Sam Darnold 9 3/8
Baker Mayfield 9 ¼
Analysis: Hand size has become a key measurement for QBs in the draft in recent years. Teams believe big hands means better ball security, particularly in cold weather. A few years ago, Jared Goff’s 9-inch hands drew a lot of questions. Brady’s hand size is unknown. It was not measured at the combine when he was in the draft.
The interesting thing in looking at the current NFL players is that two of the smaller players in the league have big hands. Brees and Wilson are both pointed to as examples of shorter quarterbacks having success. Both have 10 ¼-inch hands.
Coincidence?
Mayfield has been compared to those two because of his height, but his hands are just 9 ¼ inches. Should that scare off cold-weather teams?
Wonderlic
Sam DarnoldAPHigh Scores
Alex Smith 40
Carson Wentz 40
Matthew Stafford 38
Andrew Luck 37
Aaron Rodgers 35
Low Scores
Drew Brees 28
Russell Wilson 28
Carson Palmer 26
Dak Prescott 25
Ben Roethlisberger 25
Tyrod Taylor 15
Prospects
Josh Allen 37
Josh Rosen 29
Sam Darnold 28
Baker Mayfield 25
Analysis: The Wonderlic is an intelligence test first used in the NFL by Hall of Fame Cowboys coach Tom Landry. There is debate as to how much teams can learn from it but it is still used by the NFL, and QBs are expected to do well on it. Two former Jets both scored 48 on the Wonderlic, the highest known score for a quarterback — Ryan Fitzpatrick and Greg McElroy.
This year’s top four all did fairly well on the Wonderlic, and there should not be any concerns from teams about their scores. Allen’s score stands out and may impress someone.
Conference
Big Ten 4
Pac 12 3
ACC 3
SEC 2
MAC 1
Mount. W. 1
Miss Val. 1
Prospects
Pac 12 2
Big 12 1
Mount. W. 1
Analysis: The big conferences dominate here, as you would expect. The exceptions are Roethlisberger (MAC), Smith (Mountain West) and Wentz (Missouri Valley). Wilson could actually count for both the Big Ten and the ACC, since he went to N.C. State before playing a year at Wisconsin.
The question with this year’s group is can a Big 12 quarterback be successful in the NFL. Mayfield comes from the wide open Oklahoma offense played by many in that conference. It has not translated into NFL success, though it should be noted the Chiefs are banking on Patrick Mahomes II out of Texas Tech to be their franchise quarterback. There is also concern that Allen did not dominate the Mountain West last year.
Completion percentage
Baker MayfieldGetty ImagesHighest
Andrew Luck 67.0
Alex Smith 66.3
Ben Roethlisberger 65.5
Kirk Cousins 64.1
Carson Wentz 64.1
Lowest
Russell Wilson 60.9
Matt Ryan 59.9
Carson Palmer 59.1
Tyrod Taylor 57.2
Matthew Stafford 57.1
Prospects
Baker Mayfield 68.5
Sam Darnold 64.9
Josh Rosen 60.9
Josh Allen 56.3
Analysis: The 60 percent mark is the dividing line here. Anything under is seen as troubling by NFL teams. Stafford is proof that you can be a successful quarterback even with a low college completion percentage.
Allen’s completion percentage has been a hot topic for months. Is it a red flag or a product of him not having a strong supporting cast? Mayfield was the most accurate quarterback in college football last year. That also comes with questions, though. Was it because of the offensive system he played in?
College starts
Most
Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen meet on the field after USC’s 28-23 victory last season.Getty ImagesPhilip Rivers 51
Russell Wilson 47
Carson Palmer 45
Tyrod Taylor 42
Kirk Cousins 40
Fewest
Matt Ryan 33
Tom Brady 25
Carson Wentz 23
Alex Smith 22
Aaron Rodgers 21
Prospects
Baker Mayfield 46
Josh Rosen 30
Josh Allen 26
Sam Darnold 24
Analysis: Bill Parcells used to say he did not like QBs who had not started a lot of games in college. Mark Sanchez came under scrutiny when he was drafted after starting just 16 games. Mitchell Trubisky also drew questions last year for starting just 13 games.
Once you get to the 20-start mark, this becomes less of a question. That means you have started for the better part of two years. None of the quarterbacks at the top of this year’s draft have experience questions.
College winning percentage
Dak PrescottAnthony J. CausiHighest
Alex Smith .955 (21-1)
Carson Wentz .870 (20-3)
Aaron Rodgers .810 (17-4)
Tyrod Taylor .809 (34-8)
Tom Brady .800 (20-5)
Lowest
Dak Prescott .694 (25-11)
Philip Rivers .667 (34-17)
Drew Brees .649 (24-13)
Russell Wilson .617 (29-18)
Carson Palmer .600 (27-18)
Prospects
Sam Darnold .833 (20-4)
Baker Mayfield .826 (28-8)
Josh Allen .615 (16-10)
Josh Rosen .567 (17-13)
Analysis: This is usually more popular with fans than teams, but sometimes the argument is made that a quarterback is “a winner.” This was a popular argument from Tim Tebow fans.
Does college winning percentage matter? It definitely can indicate a QB is playing at a high level, but there are so many other factors that go into team success. Alabama’s quarterbacks would be top prospects every year if winning truly was an indication of a good quarterback.
Darnold and Mayfield own at a high clip. Teams have to figure out what value that has. Allen’s win percentage is a little low for playing in a weak conference. Look at what Wentz did against low-level competition. He dominated. Allen did not. That could hurt him.
College interceptions
Carson PalmerGetty ImagesMost
Carson Palmer 49
Drew Brees 45
Matt Ryan 37
Philip Rivers 34
Ben Roethlisberger 34
Fewest
Tyrod Taylor 20
Tom Brady 17
Carson Wentz 14
Aaron Rodgers 13
Alex Smith 8
Prospects
Baker Mayfield 30
Josh Rosen 26
Sam Darnold 22
Josh Allen 21
Analysis: Do QBs who turn it over in college continue to turn it over in the pros? Generally, yes. Palmer and Brees both had seasons where they led the NFL in interceptions. Smith and Rodgers are known as two of the least turnover-prone quarterbacks.
Mayfield’s and Rosen’s totals are inflated because of how many starts they made. Darnold’s turnovers concern teams. They are studying his interceptions and trying to figure out whether the problem is a simple fix or something that will stay with him throughout his career.


