In the second of a six-part fantasy football draft preview series, The Post looks at quarterbacks. Next week: running backs.
When is the best not the best? When does maximum production not equal maximum return?
These notions seem counterintuitive, but they are exactly the type of scenario you find surrounding quarterbacks in your fantasy football drafts.
Quarterbacks score the most points. They generally produce more consistency than other positions. But QB is not the best fantasy option early in the drafts.
If you are in, say, a 12-team league. There will be just 12 QBs in play in standard leagues each week. If your league has a Flex position, that allows for the neighborhood of 28-30 starters at running back or wide receiver. There arguably are 12 QBs worthy of every-week starting consideration. There are not 28-30 reliable RB or WR options.
Address the high-volume positions before turning your attention to QB. You would rather wind up with a serviceable QB than an unreliable RB or WR in your starting lineup.
Top guns
There is little debate among the top two, other than the order they should be picked. Between Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, you likely have this year’s top fantasy QB. But you also have to spend one of your first two picks to get one.
They’re both great, but it’s best to wait.
Target time
You passed on the big boys. You’ve snagged, say, two RBs and a WR with your first three picks. Time to put QB on the radar.
The Madman’s favorite in this range is Drew Brees. He often slips to Round 4. If Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning are still on the board when you come up in the fourth, pass on Brees, hoping he slips to you the fifth.
We didn’t like what we saw out of Manning at the end of the season, so we’re not ready to spend a pick this high on him, and we prefer Brees to Wilson. But if all three are gone and you’re still looking, there remain plenty of options.
Check-down options
Cam NewtonAPIf you don’t have a QB by the time you get to Round 6, you need to be looking in earnest, without ignoring clusters of options. At this point, top options likely include Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Tony Romo. Gauge your spot in the draft, how many of these QBs are left and when you pick next. If you think one of the four will drop to you in the following round, wait.
If you wait, and miss on all four, turn your sights to Eli Manning, who is our favorite of remaining options. The Madman’s projections for Eli are comparable to the previous four, but he will last a few extra rounds. Round 9 is a good target time.
If you missed again, make QB a priority with your next pick, with Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers and Ryan Tannehill as your primary targets.
Brady dilemma
Where Tom Brady goes in fantasy drafts varies wildly — it could be as high as the fifth round, or a low as the 10th. Don’t be afraid of drafting him, just be prepared to find a secondary option shortly thereafter.
For example, if you nab Brady in the eighth round, make sure you can snag one of the check-down option above in the next two rounds to fortify that spot while Brady likely serves his four-game Deflategate suspension.
Backup plan
Hopefully you have your starter by the time you reach Round 10. When you get this deep, you’re left with mostly bye-week/injury fill-in options. That doesn’t mean you can’t find a gem.
If Sam Bradford stays healthy, he could post strong numbers with the Eagles. Carson Palmer should at least bring the Cardinals’ passing game back to respectability. The Madman expects significant improvement from Teddy Bridgewater. And in truly desperate times, it’s OK to opt for Colin Kaepernick, Joe Flacco, Nick Foles, Jay Cutler or Derek Carr.
It’s best to avoid Robert Griffin III and rookies Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota — though they are keeper league considerations.
Insanity insider
The Madman’s DVQ rates the top 20 QBs:
ADP: Average draft position; P1E: Evaluates each player as if he were No. 1 pick; DVQ: addresses each player at average draft position
Quarterback ADP DVQ P1E
Aaron Rodgers 16.75 15.65 5.15
Andrew Luck 18.16 16.91 5.45
Peyton Manning 33.81 13.76 3.48
Russell Wilson 35.75 14.38 3.96
Drew Brees 42.44 14.69 4.21
Ben Roethlisberger 61.13 13.64 3.34
Cam Newton 73.94 15.43 4.18
Matt Ryan 74.88 14.38 3.40
Tom Brady 75.65 14.72 3.60
Tony Romo 86 14.19 3.24
Matthew Stafford 109.45 15.37 3.43
Eli Manning 111.1 16.25 3.79
Ryan Tannehill 114.74 15.90 3.54
Philip Rivers 122.32 15.62 3.29
Sam Bradford 159.94 16.70 3.10
Teddy Bridgewater 167.65 17.711 3.15
Carson Palmer 181.06 19.96 3.31
Jay Cutler 194.97 20.46 2.83
David Carr 201.26 23.20 2.75
Nick Foles 207.77 46.54 2.86

