Giants-Redskins was the easiest selection last week — a stress-free, 24-3 Lock. Giants-Vikings, however, is shaping up to be the toughest call of Week 5.
The Giants come in riding a Big Blue wave of hope after rookie QB Daniel Jones turned 0-2 and the Eli Manning era into a distant, fond memory. Through four games, they have averaged 21.8 points per game, which actually is higher than the Vikings’ 21.0. The Giants even have done that without the services of Saquon Barkley for the past game and a half.
After giving up 91 points in the first 10 quarters to the Cowboys, Bills and Buccaneers, they have yielded just six points in the past six quarters to the Bucs and Redskins. Discount the Redskins game if you’d like, but that three-point second half at Tampa Bay is looking pretty good after the 55 points the Bucs hung on the Rams last week.
We know the Vikings are not the same team on the road they are at home. Last week in Chicago, they knocked Mitchell Trubisky from the game early and still lost, 16-6. Their offense was terrorized by Khalil Mack and the rest of a Bears defense that was missing Akiem Hicks and Roquan Smith.
The Giants, however, list three starting linebackers (Alec Ogletree, Lorenzo Carter and Tae Davis) as questionable, after losing rookie surprise Ryan Connelly for the season. It’s going to be tough for whoever is left to keep track of Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook. Kyle Rudolph has been dormant, but tight ends usually burn the Giants.
The pick: Vikings, -5.
New York Jets (+13¹/₂) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Even if it’s Luke Falk at quarterback, the Jets have had some time to figure out some plays for Le’Veon Bell, Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder that might work against an Eagles defense that gives up an NFL-high 323 passing yards per game. Philadelphia’s games have been decided by an average of 4.75 points, so no interest in laying 14. Do know, though, the Jets are 0-10 all time versus the Eagles.
Mike TomlinGetty ImagesPITTSBURGH STEELERS (+3) over Baltimore Ravens: Interesting angle here is this is Lamar Jackson’s first start against Pittsburgh. His losses the past two weeks came against Chiefs and Browns teams that have faced him before. But I’m figuring the Steelers have done their film work and Jackson is a diminishing mystery.
Chicago Bears (-5¹/₂) over Oakland Raiders: Three straight road games are normally a betting red flag. Technically, the Raiders are the home team Sunday at London’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, but this mega-trip comes after road games at Minnesota and Indianapolis. The Bears defense will be fresher, and Mack will be up for this game versus his former team.
Arizona Cardinals (+3) over CINCINNATI BENGALS: This line has shrunk from 4¹/₂ earlier in the week. According to Bet Labs Sports, since 2003, the road underdog in a battle of winless teams has covered at a 64 percent rate.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3¹/₂) over Jacksonville Jaguars: Each team has won two in a row with backup quarterbacks — Kyle Allen for Carolina and Gardner Minshew for Jacksonville. The “hook” (extra half-point) is tempting, but I’m figuring the Panthers are due to play better at home after losing to the Rams and Bucs the first two weeks.
New England Patriots (-15¹/₂) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: The Patriots are coming off a 16-10 win at Buffalo in which the offense didn’t score a touchdown. So Tom Brady should be stoked to destroy a bad Redskins defense. Jay Gruden is going with Colt McCoy instead of Dwayne Haskins or Case Keenum, but do you think Bill Belichick cares? The Pats are giving up 6.75 ppg.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: All credit to Jameis Winston and the Bucs for lighting up the Rams, 55-40 in LA. But Winston is an inconsistent player, and there’s a better chance of the Saints defense jamming his circuits than there is of Tampa Bay stopping Alvin Kamara & Co.
HOUSTON TEXANS (-5) over Atlanta Falcons: This is more of an anti-Falcons pick than a Texans tout. Atlanta failed to sack Marcus Mariota in a 24-10 home loss to Tennessee, a week after Mariota was sacked nine times by Jacksonville. Looking at a field day for Deshaun Watson.
Buffalo Bills (+3) over TENNESSEE TITANS: All respect to a Bills defense that kept Brady out of the end zone. Would prefer if Josh Allen returns, and it’s looking like he’ll be active. Titans are erratic, so I’m not interested in jumping on their bandwagon after a good win.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-6¹/₂) over Denver Broncos: Winless Denver hit the 20-point mark for the first time last week, while the Chargers have scored 30 twice in four games. Melvin Gordon’s expected return should give Philip Rivers some new opportunities all over the field.
DALLAS COWBOYS (-3¹/₂) over Green Bay Packers: Dak Prescott is out-statting Aaron Rodgers thus far, and Ezekiel Elliott is averaging 4.4 yards per carry to 3.3 for Green Bay’s Aaron Jones. There should be enough of a yardage edge for Dallas to get in just above this spread after a no-shame loss at New Orleans.
Indianapolis Colts (+11) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Kansas City is giving up 23.5 points and 408 yards per game, and won its past two by five and four points. Those numbers provide hope for a Colts cover … even through the back door and likely without T.Y. Hilton.
Monday Night Football
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3¹/₂) over Cleveland Browns: Nice advantage in rest for the 49ers, who are off a bye while the Browns travel cross-country off a rivalry win in Baltimore.
Best bets: Chargers, Steelers, Colts.
Lock of the week: Chargers (Locks 2-2 in 2019).
Last week: 6-9 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.
Thursday: Seahawks (L).


