All fantasy owners love touchdowns. That’s where you rack up big points. Those scores are what separates a good fantasy day from a great fantasy day.
They also are the most unpredictable element of fantasy forecasting. Predicting volume isn’t nearly as hard. But foretelling who will score touchdowns? Unless you’re inside the meeting rooms of teams and know their plan of attack, good luck.
What we do have to help form projections is years of general player averages that, by and large, stay consistent. If a receiver has three touchdowns on five catches, chances are he won’t continue at that pace. If a high-volume running back has 50 rushing attempts but no touchdowns, it is likely holes to the end zone will open up, because the laws of probability suggest it.
To find which players are scoring at unsustainable rates and primed for a regression, and which are “due” for a flurry of TDs, we look at current touchdown rates per touch.
For this, we’re looking at rushing and receiving scores. Among running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and quarterbacks who have accumulated rushing stats, NFL players this season have scored a touchdown once every 10.3 times they “touch” the ball (touch being a rush or reception).
Instantly, we find outliers — like Leonard Fournette, who is scoring at a rate of once every 198 touches. He should have 10 TDs, based on the league average. Instead, he has one. Is it because he is a bad player, uniquely equipped to fail at such an incredible rate? That does not jive with his personal rate (TD every 38.6 touches, though that is also below league average).
Fournette isn’t the only RB who is behind on expected TDs. Le’Veon Bell (two TDs this season on 141 touches, a rate of 70.5) has scored more than five fewer TDs than expected. Marlon Mack and Chris Carson also rate high on this list.
Josh Jacobs, Ezekiel Elliott, David Montgomery and Nick Chubb all should see an increase in TD efficiency. But not all rates are equal. Adrian Peterson is in this same group, but the potential influx of Derrius Guice makes Peterson’s second half tougher to forecast.
But every list that has a top also has a bottom. Players due for TD regression include Adam Thielen, Kenny Golladay, Mike Evans, Tyrell Williams, D.J. Chark, Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin, T.Y. Hilton and Aaron Jones.
Being aware of such likely swings in production can help you navigate the trading waters as you build for squad for the fantasy playoffs.
