The point spread for Sunday’s New York Jets-Kansas City Chiefs game at Arrowhead Stadium opened at 21 points on the look-ahead line released early last week by the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. Within minutes, the number dropped a half point after the book took a wager on the Jets from a sharp bettor.

Sharps bet the number down to Chiefs -19.5, and it has sat steady there for much of the past week. That signaled the market had reached equilibrium and any extra value on the Jets probably was already gone.

Other than the fact that some sharps have the Jets at a higher spread than what’s being offered here, I can not offer any other reason to put money on them in this game.

Last week, the Jets were leading the Bills 10-0 and lost 18-10. Buffalo made up 18 points in less than 32 minutes without even scoring a touchdown. The Bills were without injured deep threat John Brown. Kudos to coordinator Gregg Williams and his defense for keeping Josh Allen out of the end zone, but this Sunday they will have to cover Kansas City’s nuclear weaponry all over the field.

Denzel Mims looked OK in his Jets debut, but Sam Darnold could again be without Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman.

To back the Jets here, one would have to hope the Chiefs would show a little mercy, back off a bit at the end. Don’t see that happening.

The pick: Chiefs -19.5.

(Home team in CAPS)

It’ll be interesting to see how the Lions react after a crazy, inexplicable finish went their way for once, as they won on the final play in Atlanta after the Falcons’ Todd Gurley scored a touchdown by mistake. Would like this more if the Colts weren’t coming in off a bye.

Forecast is for upper 30s and dry at Lambeau, not a major deterrent for the indoor Vikings, but winds gusting up to 27 mph figure to be more of a problem for Kirk Cousins than for Aaron Rodgers. If Dalvin Cook returns, the Packers will key on him and force Cousins to put the ball up.

Likely return of John Brown would give Josh Allen a dimension he’s been missing. A lot of respected voices can’t see the Patriots losing a fourth game in a row, but they’ve scored 10, 12 and 6 points — one touchdown — in three weeks. This is a chance for the Bills to avenge the years — decades — of humiliation they’ve suffered at the hands of the Patriots.

This line has steamed from Tennessee -4 to -6 as bettors believe the Titans, off their first loss, will steamroll the Bengals. But this is a nice head start for Joe Burrow, who kept scoring versus the Browns, even without Joe Mixon. And the Titans have given up 27 points or more in four of their past five games.

Cleveland’s injuries are mounting, with Odell Beckham Jr. gone for the season and Nick Chubb still out. Raiders were playing the Buccaneers tough before Tampa Bay pulled away late. They won in Kansas City and have been tough to stop when deep threat Henry Ruggs III has been available.

Tua Tagovailoa saw a few plays against the Jets before Miami’s bye, but a first start against Aaron Donald and the Rams’ defense is a whole different thing. It’s a tough travel spot for the Rams in a 1 p.m. start after a Monday night win on the other coast, but I trust Sean McVay will have them ready.

Heavy Steelers money brought this line down from Ravens -5.5, and anything over a field goal is still tempting to take. Lamar Jackson won his one previous start versus Pittsburgh, 26-23, but had three interceptions and was sacked five times. His style shouldn’t be a mystery.

Justin Herbert is the new big thing, and the public is betting him and the Bolts hard. Still, the books are reluctant to add the hook (an extra half-point over a key number) to this line. Not a fan of giving points with the Chargers, last week’s cover at home over the Jaguars notwithstanding.

Line has moved in 49ers’ direction after opening as high as Seattle -5.5. Pretty much every Seahawks game goes down to the final play, so the points still being offered could come in handy. Jamal Adams is trying to return, but Seattle has the worst defense in the NFL by 54 yards per game over the next worst.

Line has jumped from Saints -2.5 to well over the key number of 3. It’s no surprise the Saints’ offense, leaning on RB Alvin Kamara, outgains the Bears by 76 yards per game, but did you know New Orleans also allows 14 fewer yards per game, as well? Bears are on a short week with some key names (Khalil Mack, Cordarrelle Patterson, Allen Robinson) on their injury list.

Say what you want about Adam Gase and the Jets, there’s no bigger disaster in sports than Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys. Unnamed players have said he and his staff are clueless, and their play is starting to look like a mutiny. Can’t back a concussed Andy Dalton or his potential replacement, Ben DiNucci.

Tampa Bay comes into MetLife having won five of six, with the loss coming by one point. The team is rolling offensively and creating a lot of turnovers defensively, which makes it a bad matchup for mistake-prone Daniel Jones. That’s not even taking into account the COVID-19 flare-up on the offensive line.

Best bets: Saints, Raiders, Steelers.
Lock of the week: Saints (Locks 2-4-1 in 2020).
Last week: 9-4-1 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.
Thursday: Panthers (L).