When the free-agent signing period began last week, Robby Anderson’s hope was that teams’ interest in him would unfold as quickly as he runs a sideline “go” route.
Instead, the Jets’ 26-year-old speedster receiver has been confronted with a market that has turned as sluggish as one of the Jets’ 300-pound offensive linemen running that “go” route.
Anderson, who was signed by the Jets as an undrafted free agent out of Temple in 2016 and has become a nice NFL success story, could hardly contain his excitement over being an unrestricted free agent coming off a solid 2019 season.
“From a business perspective, why wouldn’t I go out there and see what my value truly could be and do things in the correct business manner?” Anderson said in December, the day after the season ended when asked if he might be inclined to give the Jets a hometown discount. “Coming in undrafted, the table is turned. (I) kind of I feel like the world is in my hands in a sense. It’s very exciting.”
However, with no big offers coming his way and the free-agent receiver market weakening by the minute, “exciting” slowly has morphed into sobering for Anderson.
No one can blame Anderson for trying to wait it out for the most money he might get. But the market has spoken, and it’s not likely the news will get better for him. He waited to hear what the market had to say. The market answered. And the market is not interested in paying him the $12-15 million per year he’s believed to be seeking.
So, now the time has come for Anderson to take the $9-10 million the Jets likely are offering him — even if that comes in a one-year “prove-it” deal. He already has a good rapport with Jets quarterback Sam Darnold and he has familiarity with Adam Gase’s offensive system.
Robby AndersonPaul J. BereswillAnd, based on what has transpired over the first week of free agency, the financial numbers for Anderson are not going to go up as time passes, they’re going to go down — particularly after the NFL Draft next month when teams have picked through the deep and rich talent pool of collegiate receivers available.
When the Cowboys quickly re-signed Amari Cooper to a five-year, $100 million deal, Anderson’s eyes must have opened as wide as silver dollars, believing the receiver market was about to take off like a jet plane. Instead, the market has since been as grounded as too many airlines are at the moment in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.
Anderson’s current reality should be similar to the one that linebacker Jordan Jenkins faced when he re-signed with the Jets to a modest one-year, $5 million deal on Monday. Like Anderson, Jenkins had visions of a long-term contract with a lot of zeroes on the back end of it. But when he realized the market wasn’t there, Jenkins went to what was familiar to him and returned to the Jets.
Look for Anderson to do the same, likely for a one-year deal (which has been a theme to the offseason plan of Jets GM Joe Douglas). If Anderson makes $9-10 million in 2020, he should consider himself ahead of the game, because he’s not one of the elite receivers in the league.
Anderson’s 52 receptions in 2019 ranked 63rd in the NFL — 97 fewer than league leader Michael Thomas from the Saints. Yes, Anderson improved his route running and was more sure-handed last season. And yes, he has big-play potential with his speed. But 30 receivers in the league caught more TD passes than the five Anderson produced in 2019.
Anderson and his agent likely are modeling their market value after the contract the Raiders gave to Tyrell Williams, who signed a four-year, $44 million contract before last season and has very similar statistics to Anderson. But, based on Williams’ production (an average of 49 catches and 5.5 TDs the past four seasons), the Raiders overpaid.
Consider the average yearly salary that receivers of far more accomplishment than Anderson are playing for at the moment. Keenan Allen, who was third in the league with 104 receptions last season, is making $11.3 million per year. Julian Edelman (100 catches) is making $7.75 million per. Marvin Jones, who had 62 catches and nine TDs last season, is making an average of $8 million per year.
This is not in any way meant to denigrate Anderson as a player, but there are many more of these comparative examples that should tell him that his estimation of his value, if it was in the $13-15 million range, has been an overestimation.
So, the next logical move for Anderson is to take what the Jets are willing to give him (within reason). That’ll return him to a place where he probably has a better chance to succeed than anywhere else and give him the opportunity to post some numbers in 2020 that might then get him that long-term deal he hoped to get this offseason, next offseason.



