UPSET? GILLETTE IT BE
FOXBOROUGH – The 12-4 AFC East champion Patriots are the closest thing to an NFL dynasty we’ve seen in years, having won three Super Bowls and owning an astonishing 10-1 record in the postseason since 2001.
The 10-6, wild-card Jets are the surprise of the NFL this season, they’ve won five of their last six and were 6-2 in the second half of the season and their rookie head coach, Eric Mangini has the players believing in a big way.
In this delicious playoff matchup with loads of intrigue, there’s no pressure on the Jets, who are playing with the house’s money, and they go to Gillette Stadium knowing they can win there because they did so in November.
The matchups:
RUNNING BACKS VS. LINEBACKERS
When Patriots have the ball: The Patriots have an effective three-headed RB punch that includes Corey Dillon (812 yards, 13 TDs), Laurence Maroney (745 yards, 6 TDs) and third-down weapon Kevin Faulk (43 receptions, 2 TDs). The Jets counter with LBs Jonathan Vilma, who leads the team with 116 tackles, Victor Hobson (100 tackles, 6 sacks), Eric Barton (100 tackles, 4½ sacks) and Bryan Thomas (8½ sacks). The Jets are ranked 24th in the NFL in run defense.
Edge: Patriots
When Jets have the ball: Rookie RB Leon Washington leads the team with 650 rushing yards and 4 TDs. Cedric Houston has 374 yards and 5 TDs. Kevan Barlow has 370 yards and 6 TDs. The Patriots are ranked fifth against the run, led by Tedy Bruschi’s 124 tackles. Mike Vrabel has 101 tackles, 3 forced fumbles, 3 INTs and 4½ sacks. Rosevelt Colvin is the top sacker with 8 1/2.
Edge: Patriots
QUARTERBACKS & RECEIVERS VS.DEFENSIVE BACKS
When Patriots have the ball: Tom Brady has thrown for 3,529 yards with 24 TDs and 12 INTs – without a true No. 1 WR. Reche Caldwell (61 catches, 4 TDs) is a close to his go-to receiver as there is. Troy Brown has caught 43 passes with 4 TDs. TE Ben Watson (49 catches) is questionable with a knee injury. The Jets’ 14th-ranked pass defense is led by S Kerry Rhodes, who has 4 INTs, 5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles. Top corner Andre Dyson (4 INTs) is questionable with a knee injury. His would-be replacement, David Barrett, has 3 INTs.
Edge: Patriots
When Jets have the ball: Though Chad Pennington’s numbers don’t look prolific -3,352 yards, 17 TDs, 16 INTs – he effectively runs the Jets’ constant no-huddle offense and is a coach on the field. He has found a rhythm with WRs Laveranues Coles (91 catches, 6 TDs), Jerricho Cotchery (82 catches, 6 TDs) and TE Chris Baker (31 catches, 4 TDs). Patriots are led by CB Asante Samuel, who’s tied for the NFL lead with 10 INTs, but will miss injured S Rodney Harrison.
Edge: Jets
OFFENSIVE LINE VS. DEFENSIVE LINE
When Patriots have the ball: Brady has been sacked 26 times. The Patriots average 3.9-yards per carry in the running game behind C Dan Koppen, RG Stephen Neal, LG Logan Mankins and Ts Matt Light and Nick Kaczur. The Jets run defense is led by Dewayne Robertson, who has 62 tackles and 2½ sacks, and DE Shaun Ellis, who has 58 tackles and 5 sacks.
Edge: Patriots
When Jets have the ball: Rookie C Nick Mangold anchors the line and has had a strong season. RG Pete Kendall and LG Brandon Moore are both strong run-blockers, and rookie LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson has had a good year pass-blocking. Pennington has been sacked 30 times and the Jets average 3.5-yards per carry, which is a little low. The Patriots are strong up front Ty Warren (7½ sacks) and Richard Seymour (51 tackles, 4 sacks, 8 batted passes). But Vince Wilfork has been hobbled with an ankle injury.
Edge: Jets
SPECIAL TEAMS
Justin Miller led the league in KO returns (28.3-yard average) and took two back for TDs. Washington was OK at 7.5 yards per punt return. The Patriots counter with Maroney (28.0) and Hobbs (36.0, 1 TD on 10 KO returns). Faulk returns punts at 10.6 yards a clip. Jets’ coverage teams are slightly better.
Edge: Jets
KICKING GAME
Mike Nugent has made 18 FGs in a row and 23 of his last 24. Overall, he’s 24-of-27 on FGs and has 106 points. His kickoffs are not deep. P Ben Graham (44.2-yard gross average, 37.8 net) is a weapon. Patriots K Stephen Gostkowski (20-of-26 on FGs and 103 points) is no Adam Vinatieri. Todd Sauerbrun (40.8 gross, 30.7 net) has stepped in for injured P Josh Miller.
Edge: Jets
COACHING
Hard to argue Bill Belichick’s success in New England. He remains one of the game’s most brilliant tacticians. Eric Mangini, though, knows Belichick about as well as anyone, having worked for him for 10 years. Mangini appears not only to be a terrific Xs and Os coach, but possibly a better motivator than Belichick. This will be a great duel of strong minds.
Edge: Even
PREDICTION
The Jets will pressure Brady again with a mixture of blitzes and do a good enough job against the run. Pennington will be close to mistake-free, the Jets will get a big special-teams play, and pull a huge upset.
JETS 23, PATRIOTS 21

