{"blocks":[{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"How can Gov. Paterson and his staff lead New York out of its worst fiscal crisis in at least a generation? The Post asked some key staffers from the last financial meltdown, back in 1975-6, for advice.– THE EDITORS"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"ADVICE FOR THE GOV: PETER C. GOLDMARK JR."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"ADVICE FOR THE GOV: C. MARK LAWTON"}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"THERE are some very real differences between the fiscal crisis faced by the Carey administration almost four decades ago and what Gov. Paterson has to deal with today, but a few lessons carry over."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The two major changes? The good news is: The quality of information available to decision-makers today is light-years ahead of the always out-of-date manual spreadsheets we had to work from then. The bad news: This crisis involves a more fundamental, seismic shift in the underlying economy, and the long-term consequences are more profound."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Now, the lessons from the past."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Understand your limits of predicting a story that continues to unfold. Things will get worse; fixes will take longer than you want to admit publicly; surprises will keep emerging and they will be downers during the early years. Government will have to be flexible."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"YOU need the public to believe you’re telling the truth even if it doesn’t like what you’re saying. Talk openly about the problems and don’t get yourself locked into predictions or pronouncements that you’re constantly forced to change. Don’t get baited into simplistic answers. Tell the public all the bad news, and underpromise."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Find a way to get the Legislature to buy into the new reality. Lawmakers are used to living year-by-year, ignoring the dour predictions from the governor, the good-government groups, editorial boards, etc., because it’s “never” as bad as promised. But this one is really bad. It’s a five-year – maybe a decade-long – structural change in the state’s economy and revenue base."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The normal legislative fix of cosmetic cuts, some new taxes and fees and another round of creative short-term borrowing can’t get us through this cycle. Unfortunately, the Legislature has no “muscle memory” of saying no and facing these kinds of problems. The 1970s were a long time ago."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"There are no “silver bullets” to solve our problems. That includes the feds. The bailout/stimulus package will help – but unless we use it as a bridge to a very different financial plan, when that money runs out we’ll be in worse shape."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Make all the interest groups, providers, labor, health care, educators, etc. come in under the tent. Anyone who claims that we should look for cost solutions elsewhere should have to pay the first dollar."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Prioritize. Rank programs by quality and essentiality – and remember: All programs are not equal, and you have no friends, only supplicants."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Be clear and authoritative about how you’re making judgments."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"And keep talking in plain English."}},{"type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Stephen Berger is chairman of Odyssey Investment Partners, a private investment firm. During the ’70s crisis, he was responsible for designing the financial plan that let New York City re-enter the credit markets."}}]}

Stephen Berger

NypStephenBerger@RoundtableIO

ADVICE FOR THE GOV