Spring, it seems, is already in the air. And although the first Saturday in May is still 14 weeks away, today The Post begins the annual countdown to the May 4 Kentucky Derby with Week 1 of the “Derby Dozen.”
In last year’s Dozen kickoff, we had a good handle on who the top Derby contenders would be. Six of the 12 3-year-old colts in our starting line-up made it to Louisville, and four of those ran in all three Triple Crown races: AP Valentine, the week-one top seed, finished second in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes; Point Given, ranked second, ran fifth as the Derby favorite and won the Preakness and Belmont; Dollar Bill, fourth in the Preakness and Belmont, was ranked third; and Monarchos, the Derby winner and third in the Belmont, was listed 12th.
What a difference a year makes. Compared to 2001, the 2002 Derby picture looks like a wide-open scramble, so much so that three colts on the Dozen have yet to run in a stakes race, and two just broke their maidens.
Saarland, a big bay colt training at Gulfstream Park toward his 3-year-old debut, heads the list for several reasons. He was a Grade 2 stakes winner going a distance as a 2-year-old, taking the Remsen at Aqueduct with a strong late run. He’s bred to get the mile and a quarter and has the right stretch-running style. His trainer, Shug McGaughey, is a future Hall-of-Famer who’s been to the Derby several times before (although not lately).
McGaughey also has our No. 3 colt, Maybry’s Boy, in his barn, and another Derby hopeful, D’Coach, based in New York.
Ranked second on the Dozen is the colt who tops most lists, Siphonic. A son of Siphon, the South American import who won the Santa Anita Handicap, Siphonic scored daylight victories last year going two turns in the Breeders’ Futurity and Hollywood Futurity, which bookended a dead-game third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
He had no chance after going to his knees breaking from the gate in his only start this year, the Santa Catalina, but still ran a big race to salvage second behind Labamta Babe.
The pick of Nokoma as our No. 4 seed will leave some people scratching their heads, after the son of Pulpit finished a well-beaten fourth (beaten a head for third) making his 3-year-old debut in Gulfstream’s Holy Bull Stakes.
But last November, coming straight off his maiden win, Nokoma nearly upset Saarland in the Remsen, losing by a neck. He has a long-winded pedigree, and most important his young trainer, Todd Pletcher, a protege of master horseman D. Wayne Lukas, has shown a fine touch with Derby horses in a short time. Two years ago he saddled longshots Impeachment and More Than Ready to run 3-4, and last year his Invisible Ink was second at 55-1.
Repent, ranked fifth, is son of Preakness winner Louis Quatorze, trained by Ken McPeek, who saddled Tejano Run to finish second in the ’95 Derby. Repent was one of last season’s top 2-year-olds, winning the Kentucky Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Jockey Club, sandwiched around a solid second in the Breeders’ Cup. Repent is training at Gulfstream but will likely ship to the Fair Grounds in New Orleans for his 3-year-old preps.
Rounding out the top half of the Derby Dozen is likely 2-year-old champion Johannesburg. Trained by Irish wunderkind Aidan O’Brien, J-burg won his first six starts on turf last year in Europe, then capped an unbeaten season by flying across the Atlantic, stretching out for the first time from six furlongs to a mile and a sixteenth, and winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his only start on dirt.
ED FOUNTAINE’S DERBY DOZEN
Horse, next race Jockey, trainer Odds* (Bally’s future-book) Comment
1. Saarland, Feb. 16 Fountain of Youth
John Velazquez, Shug McGaughey
10-1
Well-bred colt (by Ky. Derby winner Unbridled out of Gr. 1 winner Versailles Treay) won 1 1/8-mi. Remsen in final start as 2yo.
2. Siphonic, March 17 San Felipe
Jerry Bailey, David Hofmans
6-1
Winter-book favorite stumbled badly at start of 3yo debut, Jan 19 Santa Catalina at Santa Anita, rushed up with bold move, finished second.
3. Mabry’s Boy, Feb. 2 Hutcheson
John Velazquez, Shug McGaughey
25-1
Son of Broad Brush has shown explosive closing kick in sprints, winning 6f Spectacular Bid Jan. 3 at Gulfstream. Give barn strong 1-2 punch.
4. Nokoma, Feb. 16 Fountain of Youth
Pat Day, Todd Pletcher
75-1
Pulpit colt ran like short horse finishing fourth in Jan. 19 Holy Bull at Gulf, first start since close second in Nov. 24 Remsen.
5. Repent, Feb. 17 Risen Star
Tony D’Amico, Ken McPeek
6-1
Stretch-runner was second in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, then won Ky. Jockey Club at Churchill Downs in final start as 2yo.
6. Johannesburg, Undecided
Mick Kinane, Aidan O’Brien
6-1
Unbeaten (7-for-7) Irish-based colt came over last year to win BC Juvenile, but isn’t bred for 1 1/4 mi. and faces “Breeders’ Cup jinx.”
7. Labamta Babe, March 16 Florida Derby
Kent Desormeaux, Bobby Frankel
20-1
After setting pace, finishing fourth in Hollywood Futurity, Skywalker colt came from off pace to upset Siphonic by 5 ½ in Santa Catalina.
8. Harlan’s Holiday, Feb. 16 Fountain of Youth
50-1
Tony D’Amico, Ken McPeek
Rallied for place as favorite in Holy Bull, first start since winning Nov. 4 Iroquois at Churchill. Never worse than second in seven starts.
9. Werblin, Feb. 2 San Vicente
Corey Nakatani, Eduardo Inda
25-1
Unbridled’s Song colt is 2-for-2, breaking maiden by two lengths last July at Hollywood, then winning Santa Anita allowance Dec. 26 by 1 1/2.
10. Booklet, Feb. 16 Fountain of Youth
Jorge Chavez, John Ward
50-1
From same team that won last year’s Derby with Monarchos. Ran record to 5-for-6 winning Holy Bull, leading gate to wire through slow fractions.
11. Traditional, Undecided
Chris McCarron, D. Wayne Lukas
75-1
Gone West colt stretched out to 1 1/16 mi. for second start Jan. 20 at Santa Anita, prevailed. Looks like Lukas’ best hope for Derby win #5.
12. True Monarch, Undecided
Gary Stevens, Bob Baffert
90-1
Baffert, looking for third Derby win, says he might be most talented colt in barn that includes Popular, Danthebluegrassman, High Thunder.
