Something will have to give today when the Broncos play the Steelers in the AFC Championship game at Invesco Field at Mile High.
The Steelers have become the road warriors of the league, having gone into Cincinnati and Indianapolis this postseason and won. The Broncos are 9-0 at home this season and have lost only one playoff game at home in 21 years.
QUARTERBACKS AND RECEIVERS VS. DEFENSIVE BACKS
When Steelers have the ball: Everyone is fond of saying that QB Ben Roethlisberger (168-268, 62.7 percent, 2,385 yards, 17 TDs, nine INTs, 98.6 rating) “manages” the game well. That would indicate he simply doesn’t hurt the team. Truth is, this guy carried the Steelers to victory against the Colts passing the ball. Roethlisberger’s targets are solid, with Hines Ward leading the way with 69 catches, a 14.1-yard average and 11 TDs. TE Heath Miller was second with 39 catches and six TDs. He was unstoppable against the Colts. Antwaan Randle El (35 catches, 15.9-yard average) is a big-play deep threat. Broncos are led by CB Champ Bailey (eight INTs), who turned last week’s game around with that 100-yard INT return. S John Lynch is a big-play leader whose blitzing is disruptive. Ex-Jet S Nick Ferguson (5 INTs) has had a great year.
Edge: Steelers
When Broncos have the ball: QB Jake Plummer (277-456, 60.7 percent, 3,366 yards, 18 TDs, seven INTs, 90.2 rating) has shed his mistake-prone label, thanks in large part to his solid showing against the Patriots last week. WR Rod Smith (85 catches, 13-yard average, six TDs) is his best target, a big-play, clutch receiver. Ashley Lelie (42, 18.3-yard average, one TD) is a deep target. TE Jeb Putzier (37, 13-yard average) is also a factor in the passing game. The Steelers like to send all of their DBs on the blitz. S Troy Polamalu has three sacks and two INTs, as does CB Deshea Townsend. CB Chris Hope leads the way in picks with three.
Edge: Broncos
RUNNING BACKS VS. LINEBACKERS
When Steelers have the ball: Willie Parker, the leading rusher with 1,202 yards and 4 TDs on 255 carries, is most explosive and can score on any touch. Jerome Bettis (110-368, nine TDs) still has it, particularly in short yardage and around the goal line, his fumble in Indianapolis notwithstanding. Denver counters with an aggressive LB corps led by Ian Gold (106 tackles, three sacks), Al Wilson (90 tackles, three sacks) and D.J. Williams (68 tackles).
Edge: Steelers
When Broncos have the ball: The two-headed rushing attack of Mike Anderson (239-1,014, 12 TDs) and Tatum Bell (173-921, eight TDs) has been prolific. Even Ron Dayne (53-270, one TD) has been a strong player when used. The Steelers hope to slow this attack with aggressive LBs including Joey Porter (55 tackles, team-leading 11 sacks and two INTs), James Farrior, the team’s leading tackler with 112 stops and a sack, Larry Foote, who has 98 tackles and three sacks and Clark Haggans, who has 58 tackles and nine sacks.
Edge: Broncos
OFFENSIVE LINE VS. DEFENSIVE LINE
When Steelers have the ball: C Jeff Hartings, LT Marvel Smith, LG Alan Faneca, RT Max Saraks and RG Kendall Simmons are a very physical group, as evidenced by their No. 5-ranked rushing attack. The Broncos spread out their sacks among a strong and deep rotation. DEs Trevor Pryce and Ebenezer Ekuban lead the team with four sacks each. DT Gerard Warren has three sacks and is active in the run game. DE Courtney Brown has two. The Broncos are No. 2 in the league in run defense.
Edge: Broncos
When Broncos have the ball: This veteran group of C Tom Nalen, LT Matt Lepsis, LG Ben Hamilton, RT George Foster and RG Cooper Carlisle has the Broncos ranked No. 2 in the league in rushing with a remarkable 2,539 yards, more than 1,200 better than their opponents. The Steelers counter with an unknown, grinding group that includes DE Aaron Smith (34 tackles, two sacks), DE Kimo von Oelhoffen (32 tackles, two sacks) and NT Casey Hampton (40 tackles).
Edge: Broncos
SPECIAL TEAMS
Denver’s Darrant Williams is the KO returner with a 23.9-yard average. He averages 8.7 yards on punt returns. The Steelers’ best KO returner is Quincy Morgan, who averages 26.2 yards. Randle El is the punt-return man with a 10.2-yard average with 2 TDs this season.
Edge: Steelers
KICKING GAME
Denver’s Jason Elam was 24-of-32 on FGs this year and 42-of-43 on PATs for 114 points. P Todd Sauerbrun averaged 43.8 yards gross and 38.0 net. He had 24 inside the 20 and one blocked. Sauerbrun is the kickoff man and had 11 touchbacks. Pittsburgh’s Jeff Reed was 24-of-29 on FGs and perfect on 45 PATs for 117 points. Reed had five touchbacks on KOs. P Chris Gardocki averaged 41.8 gross and 34.7 yards net, had 22 inside the 20 and none blocked.
Edge: Broncos
COACHING
Bill Cowher carries the baggage of having lost six AFC title games at home, leaving him with a lot more pressure on him. But the Steelers are on the road this time and are underdogs, so maybe a change in result. Mike Shanahan had his postseason issues, too, until last week’s win. Before last week, Shanahan hadn’t won a postseason game since John Elway was playing, dating back to 1998.
Edge: Even
