We won’t know positively for at least a week how many horses will line up to challenge Empire Maker in the May 3 Run for the Roses. Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia said he’ll likely install the Florida Derby-Wood Memorial winner as the 6-5 favorite on the morning line, against what now looks like 13 or so would-be upsetters.
One thing we do know for sure is that, for the 22nd time in the last 23 years, at least one of them will be saddled by trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who’s won the Kentucky Derby four times.
Lukas, whose once mighty stable has been in something of a tailspin for a couple of years, looked as if he was going to get shut out of the Derby this year until Saturday, when he sent out Scrimshaw to win the mile-and-a-sixteenth Lexington at Keeneland.
The Lexington was the first stakes victory for the son of Gulch, who was making his first start since finishing fourth in the Feb. 15 Hutcheson at Gulfstream Park. Scrimshaw underwent minor throat surgery to correct a breathing problem after the Hutch, which knocked him out of training for three weeks.
If those who ignore history are condemned to repeat it, then anyone leaving Scrimshaw off his tickets on Derby Day could be in for a rude awakening. In 1999, Lukas won the Lexington with Charismatic, who came back to win the roses at 31-1. Last year Proud Citizen, who, like Scrimshaw and Charismatic, wasn’t even considered a Derby horse until he won the Lexington, was second in the Derby, paying $24.60 to place.
“I am the old man of Derby trainers now,” Lukas said. “I knew I was behind the eight-ball with this horse. I hope I am bringing him around. It will be an exciting two weeks.”
Refusing to be intimidated by Empire Maker, Lukas said, “I don’t see any Seattle Slews or Spectacular Bids out there.”
Besides producing a bona fide contender in Scrimshaw, the Lexington also knocked several horses off the Derby trail.
Trainer Neil Drysdale’s colt Ministers Wild Cat, bidding for a Derby berth after scratching from the Santa Anita Derby because of a bruised foot, flattened out on the far turn and checked in a well-beaten fifth as the 2-1 favorite. Fountain of Youth winner Trust N Luck, who probably would have skipped the Derby anyway, faded to fourth after setting the pace. And Ocean Terrace, who stopped badly in the Santa Anita Derby, did so again and was eased.
As for Empire Maker and his stablemate, Blue Grass winner Peace Rules, who figures to be second choice on Derby Day, trainer Bobby Frankel plans to work both colts just once at Churchill Downs, probably next weekend.
Frankel isn’t yet starting to feel the pressure of having the heavy Derby favorite in his barn, or so he claims.
“I’m OK,” he said. “Obviously I’ll be a lot more nervous when I get closer to it and when they load in the gate. But just hopefully, everything goes well, and I think he’ll do it for me.”
