OK, so you expect the Colts to wipe the field with the Jets Sunday. Well, here are a couple of reasons to grab the hefty nine-point spread:
* Peyton Manning is first in the AFC with 895 yards passing, but Chad Pennington is second with 808; they’re tied with five TD passes and Pennington actually has Manning beat in QB rating, 103.4-96.6.
* Laveranues Coles and Marvin Harrison are 1-2 in the NFL in receptions (Coles leads, 24-22) and yards (Harrison leads, 334-331).
* All three Jets games and two of three Colts games this season have been decided by eight-or-less points.
* The Jets, thought to have few offensive weapons, suddenly have a few more in Jerricho Cotchery, Brad Smith and Leon Washington.
* It’s a potential letdown spot for the Colts after their slugfest with the Jaguars. And there’s an upstart team that posts a look-at-us win around this time every season.
The pick: Jets, +9.
Chargers (-21/2) over RAVENS:
Teams are a combined 5-0, but neither has played a team that has won a game (Ravens beat Bucs, Raiders and Browns; Chargers hammered Raiders and Titans). Don’t usually like West Coast teams in early games, but the Chargers should be itchin’ for action after their bye.
BILLS (-1) over Vikings:
Guarantee you that if the Bills get another 300 yards passing from J.P. Losman, 150 yards rushing from Willis McGahee and have two triple-digit receivers, they’ll win the game this time.
Cowboys (-9) over TITANS: If the Terrell Owens situation caused such a big distraction to the Cowboys, thenwhy did this big line go up a half-point on Thursday?
CHIEFS (-7) over 49ers:
Herm Edwards was 3-2 out of the bye with the Jets, including the 2003 season, when they started 0-4, rested, then beat the Bills 30-3. His Chiefs need to throttle somebody, and fast.
Saints (+7) over PANTHERS:
This is the big Monday Night letdown scenario times a thousand, given the emotion of the Saints’ Superdome-reopening romp. But with the spread at a full TD, we’ll zero in on the Saints’ 28-22 outright road record this century.
Cardinals (+7) over FALCONS:
Certainly worried about Kurt Warner after his turnoverfest that cost the Cards a win against the Rams. However, the former Super Bowl MVP is 6-0 lifetime vs. the Falcons, and he’s playing for his job after a report he’d lost it to Matt Leinart.
Dolphins (-31/2) over TEXANS:
In 2004, then-Viking Daunte Culpepper threw for 396 yards and five TDs vs. the Texans. If he can’t revive the Miami offense against a team that allows 487 yards a game, the Dolphins should start thinking about Brady Quinn.
RAMS (-51/2) over Lions: Little bit of a dicey spread considering the inside info Mike Martz gives the Lions offense. But the Rams are an NFL-best plus-seven in turnovers and have the firepower to put up big numbers if Detroit starts coughing it up.
Patriots (+6) over BENGALS:
Sunday night’s home disaster vs. the Broncos makes this a critical week for Tom Brady and the Patriots. Danger for the Bengals if they let down after big win at Pittsburgh.
Jaguars (-3) over REDSKINS:
Mark Brunell starts for the first time vs. the team he quarterbacked from 19952003. He’s in for a rough time against that rugged Jaguar D.
Big day for Byron Leftwich, a D.C. native.
RAIDERS (+3) over Browns: Browns won a 9-7 snoozer in the Black Hole last December. Hoping the Raiders will resemble an NFL offense after working Andrew Walter in at QB during the bye week.
Seahawks (+3) over BEARS: You can’t play better football than the ‘Hawks did for three quarters vs. the Giants.
Shaun Alexander’s fill-in, Maurice Morris, averages 4.5 yards a carry in his career, and Matt Hasselbeck will spread out the Bears’ D with four wideouts.
Better team, getting points.
MONDAY NIGHT EAGLES (-11) over Packers:
The Eagles have the top yardage offense in the NFL thus far and have beaten the Packers the last eight times in Philly. A lot of points, but when things start going badly for Brett Favre, they often only get worse.
BEST BETS: Chargers, Dolphins, Cardinals.
LAST WEEK: 7-5-2.
BEST BETS: 2-1.
