BALTIMORE – There’s an old saying in horse racing: “If you didn’t go to the wedding, don’t go to the funeral.” Translated to tomorrow’s 125th Preakness Stakes at Pimlico: “Why bet Fusaichi Pegasus at 3-5 if you didn’t have him in the Kentucky Derby at 2-1?”
Why? Because you’re crazy to bet against him.
In the wake of his crushing Derby score, the $4 million Winged Wonder was anointed the next Triple Crown winner even though two races are yet to be run. Rival horsemen speak of the strapping Mr. Prospector colt – whose dam, Angel Fever, is a full sister to Preakness winner Pine Bluff – in hushed tones.
Even Bud Delp, who trained 1979 Derby-Preakness winner Spectacular Bid, called Fusaichi Pegasus the first great horse to come along since, a sure thing for the Triple Crown.
But yesterday his trainer, Neil Drysdale, warned the media: “I don’t know where you get this huge sense of optimism. Anyone involved in horse racing knows all sorts of things can happen. I never go into any race with an abundance of confidence.”
Can Fusaichi Pegasus lose the Preakness? Lots of Derby champions have. Bold Forbes and Thunder Gulch ran third, Riva Ridge fourth, Swale seventh. Each came back to win the Belmont Stakes.
In fact, 44 3-year-olds have won two Triple Crown races, but only 11 have won all three, none since Affirmed in 1978. If Fusaichi Pegasus wins the Preakness, he’ll be the fourth horse in a row going for the sweep, which has never happened before.
History is against him.
But history was against Secretariat, too, when he followed Citation as the first Triple Crown winner in 25 years.
Yes, Fusaichi Pegasus can lose the Preakness. But he won’t. Because, barring an act of God or the worst trip since the Andrea Doria, there’s not a horse in the field that can beat him.
“Backing up in distance [from 11/4 miles to 1 3/16 miles) and having just two weeks between races is always a concern,” Drysdale said. “But he settles very well, and he’s tractable. He seems able to switch on and off, so the jockey is able to take advantage of the running space.”
Let’s look at the possible alternatives, starting with Red Bullet, who skipped the Derby for this spot. He ran second to Fusaichi Pegasus in the Wood Memorial, beaten 41/4 lengths, but trainer Joe Orseno said his colt came up “empty” in the stretch after being too close to the early pace.
With Hall of Famer Jerry Bailey replacing Alex Solis as his new rider, Red Bullet will save more energy early for his late run. He’s fresh, coming off a five-week rest and had a sensational workout at Pimlico last Saturday.
In both the Gotham Stakes and Wood, he outkicked Aptitude, who got to within 1½ lengths of Fusaichi Pegasus finishing second in the Derby.
But Red Bullet is still inexperienced, he’s never won past a mile and no horse who didn’t run in the Derby has won the Preakness since 1983.
Next victim, please.
High Yield, whose two bad efforts in 13 starts both came at Churchill Downs, is an obvious live longshot coming off his inexplicable 15th in the Derby.
The list of horses who tanked at Churchill the first Saturday in May, then bounced back to win the Preakness, reads like a who’s who: Tank’s Prospect, Snow Chief, Hansel, Pine Bluff, Tabasco Cat, Timber Country, Louis Quatorze.
Many of them had the same Derby trip as High Yield – wide, fast early, slow late – and three of them, like High Yield, were trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by Pat Day, who both have five Preakness notches on their belts.
But plenty of other Lukas colts – Marfa, Badger Land, Houston, Land Rush, Union City, Prince of Thieves, Cape Town and Cat Thief – also fit the profile but never got a sniff of the Black-Eyed Susans that blanket the Preakness winner.
Captain Steve – looking to give trainer Bob Baffert his third Preakness in the last four years – is another Derby also-ran who could move forward tomorrow.
Too close to the hot Derby pace, he briefly took the lead turning for home, then got slammed by Wheelaway in the stretch and finished eighth. Baffert said the bumping incident might have cost him third or fourth, but also admits, “The only way to beat Fusaichi Pegasus is if they make him start behind the gate.”
As for the others, Hal’s Hope and Hugh Hefner will carve out the early pace and tire. Snuck In could pick up a minor check, and Impeachment will be too far back early to make much impact unless the race falls apart.
