Coming off a season in which he went 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA with 112 strikeouts and a 1.296 WHIP over 20 starts, the Rockies’ Jon Gray was one of those middle-of-the-draft pitching targets this year. Unfortunately, his season has been a mixed bag — some flashes of brilliance combined with starts that make you throw up your hands and scream, “Why the heck did I draft this guy?!?”
After being demoted to Triple-A Albuquerque this week, Gray was the sixth-most dropped player in ESPN leagues (the most dropped, non-injured starting pitcher), seeing his ownership plummet from 60.1 percent to 44.5. He was also owned in just 45 percent of Yahoo leagues, his ownership dipping 15 percent since Thursday.
Before being demoted, Gray was 7-7 with an ugly 5.77 ERA and 1.489 WHIP. He also has a career-high HR/FB rate (15.5 percent).
Sure, those numbers look like they belong to someone who pitches half his games in a ballpark where you could hit a ping-pong ball out of the stadium with an HDMI cable, but Gray’s issues aren’t a Coors Field thing. In fact, his home (5.64) and road (5.89) ERAs are virtually the same.
So, why is this all happening? Why is this space being used to talk about a struggling pitcher on a team notorious for housing lousy pitchers? Why write about a guy whose ERA, among qualified pitchers, is only slightly better than the White Sox’s Lucas Giolito (6.93) and the Orioles’ Alex Cobb (6.53)? Why spend time talking about a guy who was just demoted after giving up the most hits (108) and earned runs (59) in the NL?
Well, because he will be back in the majors sooner rather than later, and there are numbers that actually indicate Gray is (and will be) much better than he is right now.
Gray, who has a mid-90s fastball, has been extraordinarily unlucky. He has been bitten by the highest BABIP (.386) among qualified starting pitchers. His FIP (3.08) is more than two runs below his ERA, and his xFIP (2.75) is even lower.
Jon GrayGetty ImagesHis FIP ranks in the top 15 in baseball, one spot behind Gerrit Cole and three spots ahead of Corey Kluber.
He ranks sixth in xFIP, one spot behind Kluber and one spot above Max Scherzer. He has also been hurt by a low strand rate (63.1 percent).
Gray has struck out 119 batters (over 92 innings), the 13th-most in the league. He has the sixth highest strikeouts per nine in the majors (11.64) — which is also a career high — trailing Scherzer, Boston’s Chris Sale, Cole, Charlie Morton and Seattle’s James Paxton.
Gray, a pitcher who has allowed four earned runs or more in 10 of his 17 starts, has the 13th-best K-BB percentage (21.8), sandwiched between Stephen Strasburg (23.2) and Nick Pivetta (20.8), and tied with Morton. He also has the 12th-best swinging-strike percentage (13.4), which means he has been overpowering. His swinging-strike percentage is better than that of Carlos Carrasco, Morton, Trevor Bauer, Justin Verlander and Luis Severino. It is also about 3 percent better than Kluber’s (10.8 percent).
The truth is, Gray’s numbers are better than they ever have been, but the results haven’t supported the numbers. He simply has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game.
Being demoted should not be seen as a sign of doom, but a sign of hope — hope the young hurler can rediscover the confidence or the form that helped him become one of the top 40 fantasy pitchers heading into the season.
The move this week was not the Rockies throwing in the towel on a young pitcher, but the Rockies giving him a much-needed reset — one that could help fantasy owners, too. Now’s a good time to buy low, stash him and believe in his luck turning around.
Big hits
Matt Harvey SP, Reds
After going 1-3 with a 5.09 ERA over his first seven starts in Cincy, the Dark Knight is 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA, 14:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio and .200 opponent average over his past three starts.
Avisail Garcia OF, White Sox
Though he swings at just about every pitch, he was 20-for-59 (.339) with six homers, nine RBIs, 13 runs and a 1.123 OPS over his first 14 games since returning from the DL.
Shane Bieber SP, Indians
Despite opponents hitting .303 against him, he is 4-0 with 3.17 ERA, 29 strikeouts and just five walks over his first five starts (4-0 with a 2.19 ERA over his last four).
Wilson Contreras C, Cubs
Had at least one hit in 10 of his past 11 games before Friday, going 16-for-38 (.421) with three homers, 11 RBIs, seven runs and a stolen base in that span.
Big whiffs
Tanner RoarkN.Y. Post: Charles WenzelbergJake Junis SP, Royals
His last win came on May 18, and he is 0-7 with a 7.15 ERA, 44 strikeouts, 16 walks and a .295 opponent average over his past eight starts. He has allowed 36 earned runs in that span and has lost seven straight decisions.
Salvador Perez C, Royals
Entered Friday without a homer since June 10, and he is 13-for-77 (.169) with one RBI, 24 strikeouts, no walks and a .385 OPS in his past 19 games.
Tanner Roark SP, Nationals
Lost four of his past five outings (last win was on June 6), allowing 23 earned runs over his past 27 ¹/₃ innings (7.57 ERA), 13 walks and a .336 opponent average.
Marwin Gonzalez 1B/2B/SS/OF, Astros
Had just four hits in his past 46 at-bats (.087) with one homer, one RBI, three runs, 14 strikeouts, four walks and a .312 OPS.
Check swings
- Robinson Chirinos was hitting just .210 with 93 strikeouts for the Rangers entering Friday night but had come to life over his past seven games. Not only was he hitting .320 with three homers and a 1.214 OPS in that span, he had at least one RBI in six of those games while driving in 13 runs.
- Another Rockies pitcher to keep an eye on: Tyler Anderson has won his past two starts, allowing just six hits over 16 innings with 17 strikeouts, three walks and a .118 opponent average. He is 3-2 with a 2.18 ERA, 41:8 strikeout-to-walk rate and .207 opponent average over his past six starts.
- Reds speedster Jose Peraza had hit three home runs in his past 32 at-bats. For reference, he hit three homers in 241 at-bats in 2016 and five in 487 at-bats in 2017. Did you know Babe Ruth wore a cabbage leaf under his cap to keep his head cool, and changed it every two innings? What does this have to do with Peraza? Absolutely nothing, but it did remind me that there’s some leftover cole slaw from July 4 that I have to toss.
Team names of the week
Shohei the Money



