THE gloom-and-doomers are out in force: The Jets are walking into a double trap vs. the 49ers – a division-sandwich game with a major look-ahead to next week in Foxboro. The spread’s too large. The Jets’ two starting offensive guards are out, and Santana Moss might be, too. They’re historically bad bets as hefty home favorites.
While all of the above may be true, the inference that the Jets won’t cover or could actually lose to the 49ers is dubious. For one thing, all of the Jets’ games leading up to New England could be called trap or look-ahead games, and they are 4-0. The replacement guards, Jonathan Goodwin and Brent Smith, aren’t guys off the street. They have seen significant action in the past. If Moss can’t go, look for Justin McCareins to make his first mark.
More important, this isn’t the Miami or Buffalo defense on the other side of the field. Niners are giving up 27.4 ppg, and now their one stud, Julian Peterson, is out for the year.
Tim Rattay, a good QB, will put up some points. But it would be a shock if the Jets don’t win this one in the 31-17 range.
The pick: Jets -10.
BILLS (-61/2) over Dolphins
For an 0-4 team, Bills have been downright competitive. They could have beaten the Pats, should have beaten the Jets and will break through against the Dolphins, who are letting some guy named Wes Welker play every position.
PATRIOTS (-4)
over Seahawks
Hawks can destroy any bad team you put in front of them but haven’t shown the pedigree to consistently beat the league’s best. Paid for breaking the Always Pick Pats pledge, even though Dolphins were one measly foot from backdoor cover.
Panthers (+81/2)
over EAGLES
Too many points to give Panthers, who have won at KC and covered at Denver. Stephen Davis should return, which is key with DeShaun Foster now out.
BROWNS (-3) over Bengals
Vegas has it right, because except for the 3-point edge to the home team, there’s little to choose between these division rivals. However, Dawg Pound could be worth more than three, since Browns are 2-0 at home and Bengals 0-2 on road.
LIONS (-2) over Packers
While Lions likely will have to do without Roy Williams in addition to Charles Rogers, the duo of Az Hakim and Tai Streets should be plenty good enough against the worst secondary on the planet.
Redskins (pick) over BEARS
Perhaps a 1-4 team should be getting some points on the road. Still, there’s too much talent on Redskins, and Joe Gibbs is too good a coach for the losing to continue indefinitely.
Texans (+61/2) over TITANS
Monday Night letdown theory at work after Titans’ big win at Lambeau, especially given this healthy spread. David Carr has sprained foot but he missed some practices with it last week and threw for 372 yards and three TDs vs. Vikes.
Chargers (+5) over FALCONS
Chargers’ 140 points are second only to Colts’ (159), and they hung 72 points combined in home wins over the Titans and Jags, two good defenses. Wouldn’t be shocked at a narrow Falcon win, but can’t back ’em at this price.
Chiefs (-2) over JAGUARS
KC had week to rest after schooling (though not quite shutting up) Ray Lewis and Ravens. Jags also have top D but are averaging 14 ppg.
COWBOYS (-3) over Steelers
Dallas defense and crowd had Kurt Warner rattled early before everything fell apart. Suspicion is Bill Parcells will get everyone to show up and play 60 minutes to give undefeated Ben Roethlisberger a taste of NFL reality.
RAIDERS (+11/2)
over Broncos
Raiders gave up 65 points on a two-game trip to Houston and Indy, and Kerry Collins has reverted to being a turnover machine. But things will change against an archrival back in the Black Hole, where Oakland is 2-0.
Vikings (-31/2) over SAINTS
The 127 points allowed by Saints are tied for third-most in the NFL. So it will be tough for them to keep pace with the Culpepper-to-Moss express, even though Deuce McAllister pronounced himself fit with 102 yards in loss to Bucs.
MONDAY NIGHT
RAMS (-61/2)
over Buccaneers
If Seattle loses at New England, Rams can take over sole possession of first place in NFC West. Brian Griese did OK in shepherding Bucs’ first win over Saints last week, but if Jon Gruden were comfortable with playing him an entire game, Griese wouldn’t be third string on his third team in three years.
BEST BETS: Chargers, Lions, Cowboys.
LAST WEEK: 10-4.
BEST BETS: 2-1.
