Jets (+7½) over COLTS (Under 39): Ex-Colts coach Tony Dungy believes Peyton Manning is a far better postseason quarterback once he’s gotten a same-season look at an opponent. Dungy cited Colts-Broncos matchups from 2003-04 as Exhibits A and B.
So? The Colts and Manning have owned the Broncos in any game that mattered for eons. They haven’t owned the Jets. The Colts haven’t beaten Gang Green by more than a touchdown in any meeting since Dungy’s arrival — including the 41-0 playoff debacle in 2002.
Coach Rex Ryan’s troops look to force Manning from his comfort zone. Threading back through San Diego and New England, pressure 3-4 defenses have given Manning postseason fits for years.
Offensively? In the face of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, with their 23 combined sacks this season, pounding the rock is time-burning antidote that sets up play-action for Mark Sanchez — a situation under which he thrives.
The league now dances to Bill Polian’s 5-yard chuck rule — tailor-made for Colts talent — but even with their rookie coach and quarterback, J-E-T-S are capable of upset, given their defensive prowess.
Jets 17, Colts 16
SAINTS (-3½) over Vikings (Over 53): Excepting the Ravens (who lost in a photo finish), Vikings beat nobody outside their division worth a lick before theirCowboys win . . . losing to the Steelers (when they were good), Cardinals and Panthers — all on the road.
But they’re in sync with Brett Favre’s master plan: riding a deep team with prime offensive weapons, a massive defensive front, and a dome to call home.
But nagging issues include RB Adrian Peterson and an offensive line that isn’t on the same page, DE Ray Edwarfds’ worrisome knee sprain, and Percy Harvin’s migrane woes.
Saints running back Reggie Bush could be key. Bush chimed in with a rushing touchdown and a punt return for six, last week. New Orleans’ braintrust restricted Bush’s exposure this season, and coach Sean Payton now reaps the rewards.
We know . . . the desperate Cowboys caught the Saints fat and happy in Week 15 — and Vikings caught a Dallas squad with its offensive line out of gas.
It’s foolish to overweight such results. Comparative-score handicapping long has been a sucker’s game in this rock/paper/scissors league, in which matchups matter.
Wresting the early lead is paramount. Yes, Favre can be end-game dynamite if Saints are playing prevent with a touchdown-plus lead and an eye toward swapping yardage for time off the clock, but conference championships seldom come to that. And Favre hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass to cap a last-stanza, come-from-behind postseason win since taming Detroit in the ’93 wildcard round.
The birthplace of American jazz vs. Prince and the party-boat crowd? Saints be praised.
Saints 37, Vikings 27
