THE free-agent bazaar – or should that be bizarre with contraction in the air? – is open. Even with the threat of removing two teams a possibility, the business of buying players will go on, although perhaps tempered because stars from the Expos and Twins will soon be available, as well.
But the reason for moderation should not be because Vladimir Guerrero, Eric Milton and Javier Vazquez might soon provide other options. The reason for restraint from both the owners and players should be history.
Look at last year. There were three free agents who scored nine-figure deals – Alex Rodriguez with Texas, Manny Ramirez with Boston and Mike Hampton with Colorado. In each case, less than 12 month later, both the players and teams wished they had not done these contracts. None of the clubs made the playoffs and each team has had the financial flexibility to upgrade deterred by the presence of these deals.
Meanwhile, Hampton and Ramirez already have expressed a desire to go elsewhere (guess the school system wasn’t as great in Colorado as Hampton had bragged). A-Rod is too much the statesman to say he wants out. But he keeps complaining to enough people about the Mets not bidding upon him a year later as to suggest he recognizes he sent himself into baseball oblivion.
The five biggest free agents this offseason are Moises Alou, Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, Juan Gonzalez and Chan Ho Park. Before the feeding frenzy begins, let us point out each is a dangerous long-term sign.
Alou turns 36 next season and has a recent history of fragility. Gonzalez has a back condition that, some teams that have seen the X-rays, think is a time bomb. Park has endured back problems each of the last two seasons, though he has gone over 220 innings both years. Bonds had one of the most brilliant offensive seasons ever, but turns 38 during next year and a four- or five-year deal pays him well into his 40s. Giambi is looking for a seven- or eight-year deal, and already in his early 30s he has added significant weight to his lower body while showing the maneuverability around first base of the Washington Monument.
All of the players, except Park, have expressed that they like playing where they are, much like Ramirez did with Cleveland. In the case of Bonds and Giambi it is particularly true. But will they forgo some money to stay where they are happy?
Predictions: Bonds does stay in San Francisco despite having Scott Boras as an agent. Giambi doesn’t and signs with the Yanks, though the thought keeps coming back to me that Giambi remains in Oakland, and the Yanks use the money to sign Alou, Mark McLemore and Jason Schmidt.
Alou turned down a trade to the Yanks previously and has no love for New York, but the Mets will be players for him. Park goes to Texas, where his agent, Boras, has an in. Gonzalez goes to Seattle, which can really use his bat.
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Here’s a trade to help the Mets: Armando Benitez, Jay Payton and Glendon Rusch for Gary Sheffield. The Mets get the hitter they need to protect Mike Piazza. Dodger GM Dan Evans gets rid of more of the Boras influence on his roster, as he wants to do. And one of Evans’ top confidants, Dave Wallace, is a former Met pitching coach who loves Benitez and Rusch . . .
Bud Selig is building a pretty nice legacy as commissioner. He killed the 1994 World Series and now he is saying he will kill off two teams. No Fall Classic in ’94 was supposed to help the owners get a better collective bargaining agreement. It didn’t. Contraction is supposed to have the same effect. We’ll see . . .
For those wondering about an interruption to next season, here’s the most important clue that there will be no disruption – the All-Star Game is at Miller Park in Milwaukee, the stadium that Bud Built. The commissioner will not endanger that game, and all its profits, since he still owns about one-third of the team while his daughter owns most of the rest . . .
Keep in mind that if you get down to 28 teams, but never get to the real solution – owners spreading around their local TV/radio dollars more equitably – then instead of having teams with the 29th and 30th worse revenue stream, you will have teams with the 27th and 28th worse revenue stream, who are in just as bad a shape.
Hey, I know, maybe they can contract down to one team.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
BOSTON – Rod Beck, rhp; Dante Bichette, of; Hideo Nomo, rhp; Troy O’Leary, of.
CHICAGO (5) – Jose Canseco, of; David Wells, lhp.
CLEVELAND (5) – Marty Cordova, of; Kenny Lofton, of.
DETROIT (1) – Roger Cedeno, of.
KANSAS CITY (2) – Luis Alicea, 2b.
NEW YORK (7) – Scott Brosius, 3b; Sterling Hitchcock, lhp; Chuck Knoblauch, of; Tino Martinez, 1b.
OAKLAND (6) – Johnny Damon, of; Ron Gant, of; Gil Heredia, rhp; Jason Isringhausen, rhp.
SEATTLE (8) – Bret Boone, 2b; Jay Buhner, of; Norm Charlton, lhp; Mark McLemore, 2b; Aaron Sele, rhp.
TEXAS (4) – Ruben Sierra, of.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
ARIZONA (4) – Reggie Sanders, of.
ATLANTA (11) – John Burkett, rhp; Ken Caminiti, 3b; Javy Lopez, c; John Smoltz, rhp.
CHICAGO (6) – Delino DeShields, 2b; Matt Stairs, of; Rondell White, of.
HOUSTON (9) – Vinny Castilla, 3b; Tony Eusebio, c; Jose Vizcaino, ss.
MILWAUKEE (3) – Devon White, of.
PHILADELPHIA (4) – Dennis Cook, lhp.
PITTSBURGH (3) – Francisco Cordova, rhp.
SAN DIEGO (4) – Rickey Henderson, of.
