NO serious horseplayer should even dream of handicapping Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup without first carefully scrutinizing the horses saddled by the unchallenged maestro of the event, D. Wayne Lukas.
The Hall of Fame trainer has won 16 Cup events, or more than twice the number of his nearest rival, Shug McGaughey, with seven. He has won $17.5 million, or more than twice the sum accumulated by Bill Mott ($8.4 million).
Lukas is always the man to beat at racing’s highest level because he makes the main event his overarching goal.
Critics notwithstanding, he has assembled an amazing record. Read it and marvel: in the Breeders’ Cup, he has saddled 132 starters and won with 16. A $2 win bet on all starters has returned $315 – a 19 percent return on investment.
On Wall St., they call you a genius if you can hit 20 percent.
But it gets better. In the Kentucky Derby, Lukas has had 38 starters. At a cost of $76, his winners have returned $138. The profit – a startling 81 percent! His Belmont Stakes record is a blowout. His 16 starters cost $32 and returned $67 for a profit of 109 percent. Only in the Preakness does his profit lag. He is currently running 60 cents in the black.
So, what’s he serving up this week? He has only three sure starters – Spain in the Distaff, Jump Start in the Juvenile and Orientate in the Classic. He needs two scratches to get Yonaguska into the Sprint.
As usual, not one of them is even remotely favored. It doesn’t bother Lukas. He says, “I make a living winning races with horses that are not supposed to win.”
But at the barn yesterday, he served notice. He’s loaded. He said, “We’re competitive – more so than you guys [the media] evaluate us. Not many handicappers will look in our direction, but that might be a mistake on their part.”
This is his line-up:
SPAIN: Won the Distaff last year at 55-1 as a three-year-old, thrashing, among others, the 2-5 favorite, wonder mare Riboletta.
This year, Spain faces another short-priced, supposedly unbeatable rival in Flute. Said Lukas, “Spain is a better horse this year than last. She has grown, matured and is much stronger.
“She meets an exceptionally strong field, but they will have to deal with her. We feel very good going into the race.”
No wonder. After resting her from April to August, Lukas has given Spain three preps for the Distaff. Her Beyer speed figs look like this – 91, 95, 107. Here’s a horse sitting on the race of her life.
JUMP START: An A.P. Indy 2-year-old, who won his first two starts before failing badly in the Hopeful at Saratoga. But he rebounded nicely for second in the longer Champagne behind the monster Officer.
“The Juvenile is a very contentious field,” said Lukas – although nearly everyone else thinks its a one-horse walkover for Officer.
“There are five or six horses in there with great credentials. No one, not even Officer, can go over there with great confidence. It’s going to be one helluva race, maybe the best of the card.”
How can Jump Start beat Officer? Go back to the Juvenile in 1988 when the whole world thought Easy Goer was unbeatable and sent him off at 3-5. Guess who won? Wayne Lukas with the 9-1 shot Is It True.
ORIENTATE: Is he kidding? Orientate last out won the Indiana Derby at Hoosier Park at 15-1. Hell, they didn’t even like him in Indiana. How can they love him at Belmont Park?
Lukas smiled and said, “He’s a fresh, dangerous horse. If you start tearing into the Classic field, you’ll see a whole bunch of holes. I’ll say it again, this is a dangerous horse.”
Asked when he saw Orientate as a Classic hope, Lukas replied, “When he ran second in his first race, a maiden at Hollywood Park, last year. As we were going up the stairs, I told [owner] Bob Lewis, ‘This is going to be a major player.’ “
Lewis is coming in for the race. Pat Day has the mount for the first time.
YONAGUSKA: Last year’s Hopeful winner, who has won only one race since. Still he ran a nice third to Delaware Township two weeks ago in his first outing since April.
Mike Welsch, the Racing Form’s clocker, said Yonaguska’s half-mile work Monday was the third most impressive of the day, that he finished as well as any, and wrapped it up with an “explosive” last furlong in 11 seconds and change. A chance if he gets in.
This has not been a salad year for Lukas, even though he has won more than $5 million. He skipped the Derby and Preakness, finished up the track in the Belmont and lost a major client in Padua Stable.
A big win Saturday would salvage the year for the maestro.
