The next step has to come this season. In 2006, the playoffs need to be at Shea, and the Mets surely know that. While the Braves have been the NL East champs since 1995 and are again strong, the Mets – now with Billy Wagner and Carlos Delgado – have stars in the infield, outfield, rotation and bullpen and more than $100 million invested in the payroll.
But will they be good enough to beat Atlanta and take the division for the first time since 1988? Here’s your answer:
First Base
Over the last 10 years, only Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez have more extra-base hits than Carlos Delgado. The lefty is a huge bat and is hungry for the postseason. But watch Delgado’s elbow tendinitis and David Wright’s and Jose Reyes’ error totals, as Delgado doesn’t own Doug Mientkiewicz’s glove.
Second Base
Even if Kazuo Matsui weren’t hurting, Anderson Hernandez still should have gotten the job. The unproven Hernandez is no more of a risk than Matsui. As long as he can shine defensively, Mets should be OK.
Shortstop
Jose Reyes not only must continue to stay healthy but must also show he can have a healthier OBP. If he bumps it up, Reyes – perhaps the most exciting athlete in New York – could become one of the game’s elite leadoff men.
Third Base
Among third basemen with at least 900 plate appearances over the last two years, only Aramis Ramirez and Chipper Jones have higher OPS’s than David Wright. The future captain is head-shakingly mature and not even arbitration-eligible until after 2007.
Left Field
Cliff Floyd delivered last season, staying healthy and playing good defense. He had a shaky second half (.256, 12 homers vs. .287, 22 homers before All-Star break), but will he be motivated by a contract year?
Centerfield
The combination of injuries, ineffectiveness and misfortune for Carlos Beltran was almost impossible to believe. Considering his talents and salary, the Mets need an improvement. The last time Beltran had a bad year (2000), he rebounded by hitting .306 with 24 homers, 101 RBIs and 31 steals in ’01. That works.
Right Field
In the seven hole, powerful Xavier Nady, acquired for Mike Cameron, could provide lineup depth. But the Mets will be worse here defensively. Victor Diaz and maybe Lastings Milledge, who begins the season in the minors, are waiting.
Catcher
Over the last three years, Paul Lo Duca has hit a combined .327 in April and May and .258 thereafter. A more consistent season would be nicer. Lo Duca is a better thrower than Mike Piazza, but this is not necessarily an upgrade; Piazza hammered 19 homers last season, Lo Duca six.
Bench
Of last year’s reserves, only two remain – utility man Chris Woodward and backup backstop Ramon Castro, both of whom delivered excellent campaigns. Julio “The Kid” Franco brings a solid bat and, in an understatement, veteran counsel, but Jose Valentin’s batting average has declined five straight years. Endy Chavez is a fine fourth outfielder.
Rotation
Potentially stellar but also scary, this figures to be the key to the year. The top two arms – Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine – have an ailing toe and 40 years on the planet, respectively. Steve Trachsel had back surgery last year and Victor Zambrano is baffling but had an outstanding spring. Giving rookie Brian Bannister a shot instead of Aaron Heilman had better work.
Bullpen
Mostly brand-new crop has a chance to become elite. Assuming he is unfazed by New York, the flamethrowing Billy Wagner should own the ninth. The presumed bridge of Duaner Sanchez and Heilman is expected to be reliable, though there are still questions regarding power righty Jorge Julio. Need for lefty should be alleviated by Wagner’s and Heilman’s presence.
Manager
In his second year, Willie Randolph has to deliver on both his in-game decisions (how he handles the bullpen, how he sets the lineup, etc.) and his overall leadership (how he deals with playoff pressures, the media, etc.). In his inaugural season, Randolph got off easy many times. The same favor is unlikely again.
Prediction
Assuming Martinez throws 200 innings, expect the Mets to still finish second to Atlanta in the NL East but go 90-72, hold off Houston for the Wild Card and get knocked out by St. Louis in the NLDS.
mark.hale@nypost.com
2005 STATS
PLAYER HR RBI AVG.
m-Paul Lo Duca 6 57 .283
m-Carlos Delgado 31 115 .301
Kaz Matsui 3 24 .255
David Wright 27 102 .306
Jose Reyes 7 58 .273
Cliff Floyd 34 98 .273
Carlos Beltran 16 78 .266
p-Xavier Nady 13 43 .261
b-Julio Franco 9 42 .275
d-Jose Valentin 2 14 .170
n-Endy Chavez 0 11 .216
Chris Woodward 3 18 .283
Victor Diaz 12 38 .257
Ramon Castro 8 41 .244
Anderson Hernandez 0 0 .056
n-with Nationals and Phillies; d-with Dodgers; b-with Braves; p-with Padres; m-with Marlins
PITCHER W L ERA K
Pedro Martinez 15 8 2.82 208
Tom Glavine 13 13 3.53 105
Steve Trachsel 1 4 4.14 24
Victor Zambrano 7 12 4.17 112
Brian Bannister In minors
W L ERA SV
p-Billy Wagner 4 3 1.51 38
d-Duaner Sanchez 4 7 3.73 8
o-Jorge Julio 3 5 5.90 0
Aaron Heilman 5 3 3.17 0
Heath Bell 1 3 5.59 0
Chad Bradford 2 1 3.86 0
Darren Oliver In minors
Yusaku Iriki In Japan
p-with Phillies; d-with Dodgers; o-with Orioles
