It’s time to make this proposal to NBA general managers, scouts and draftniks:
Let’s do away with the term “impact player.” Unlike the NFL Draft, the impact player no longer exists in the NBA Draft.
The days of a Tim Duncan coming into the league and turning a farce into a force are little more than a romantic notion. The players are too young, or too foreign, or both, to impact in the NBA in year one.
Since Duncan was the No.1 pick of the Spurs in 1997, only one of the last four top picks, Kenyon Martin, has been in the playoffs.
Will Yao Ming, who likely will be the No.1 pick in tonight’s NBA Draft at Madison Square Garden (7:30, TNT), make the Rockets into a playoff contender? Let’s first see if he can handle all that lovely humidity in Houston, not to mention the first time Shaquille O’Neal steamrolls the 7-foot-5 Asian.
Can Jay Williams teach Bulls Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry how to win? Does Williams even know how to win on the NBA level?
Last year’s Rookie of the Year Pau Gasol wasn’t able to lead his team, the Grizzlies, to the playoffs. Tony Parker helped the Spurs, but they still can’t beat L.A.
If we can give up the notion of the impact player then we can see tonight’s draft for what it is: a solid, deep, versatile collection of players.
“I don’t think there are many impact players who are going to come in and play 40 minutes a game,” Knicks assistant GM Jeff Nix said. “But there’s a good balance, a good mix. It’s a lot deeper than people give it credit.”
The draft is especially deep at forward. Duke’s Mike Dunleavy, Kansas’ Drew Gooden and UConn’s Caron Butler lead a terrific group of college underclassmen. Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Maybyner Hilario and Bostjan Nachbar head the international contingent.
“I think it’s a very deep draft,” said Bucks GM Ernie Grunfield. “I think the top 20 picks should yield a very solid player. There’s a little dropoff after 20, but there will still be some players taken in the second round who make teams.”
Intrigue should rule this draft, and don’t be shocked by a bevy of trades. There are too many good players whose ratings vary from team to team.
The Wizards, in order to make room in the lineup for Michael Jordan at shooting guard, yesterday traded Courtney Alexander to the Hornets for the 17th pick. Some teams desperately want to move up to get a shot at Tskitishvili; others are looking for multiple first-round picks.
“I think [picks] four through 10 are going to be awfully interesting,” said Nix.
Even the second round should be intriguing. Virginia’s Roger Mason has first-round talent, but a bum shoulder might drop him to the second round, where he’d be a steal. Alabama’s Rod Grizzard would have gone in the first round if not for a knee injury.
“When we look at our draft board, in the second round we have the 36th pick and we’ve narrowed it down to 23 players,” said Nix. “There’s a wide range from 20 to 43. And it could be flip-flopped.”
First Round
1. Houston
2. Chicago
3. Golden State
4. Memphis
5. Denver
6. Cleveland
7. New York
8. L.A. Clippers (from Atlanta)
9. Phoenix
10. Miami
11. Washington
12. L.A. Clippers
13. Milwaukee
14. Indiana
15. Houston (from Toronto)
16. Philadelphia
17. Washington
18. Orlando
19. Utah
20. Toronto (from Seattle via New York)
21. Portland
22. Phoenix (from Boston)
23. Detroit
24. New Jersey
25. Denver (from Dallas)
26. San Antonio
27. L.A. Lakers
28. Sacramento
Minnesota lost first-round pick due to illegal Joe Smith contract
Second Round
30. Golden State
31. Chicago
32. Memphis
33. Denver
34. Milwaukee (from Houston)
35. Cleveland
36. New York
37. Atlanta
38. Houston (from Miami)
39. Washington (from Phoenix via Denver)
40. Washington
41. L.A. Clippers
42. Milwaukee
43. Portland (from Toronto via Chicago)
44. Chicago (from Indiana)
45. Philadelphia
46. Memphis (from Orlando)
47. Utah
48. Milwaukee (from New Orleans)
49. Seattle
50. Boston
51. Portland
52. Minnesota
53. Miami (from Detroit via Toronto and Houston)
54. New Jersey
55. Dallas
56. San Antonio (from L.A. Lakers)
57. San Antonio
58. Sacramento
TOP 5 POSITION
FORWARDS: 1. Mike Dunleavy, 6-9, Duke junior; 2. Nikoli Tskitishvili, 6-11, European pro; 3. Caron Butler, 6-7, Uconn soph; 4. Drew Gooden, 6-10, Kansas junior; 5. Chris Wilcox, 6-10, Maryland soph
CENTERS: 1. Yao Ming, 7-5, Shanghai Sharks (China); 2. Curtis Borchardt, 7-10, Stanford junior; 3. Melvin Ely, 6-10, Fresno St. senior; 4. Amare Stoudemire, 6-10, Cypress Creek (Fla.) H.S.; Dan Gadzuric, 6-11, UCLA senior
GUARDS: 1. Jay Williams, 6-2, Duke junior; 2. Dajuan Wagner, 6-3, Memphis frosh; 3. Qyntel Woods, 6-8, NE Mississippi JC soph; 4. Kareem Rush, 6-6, Missouri junior; 5. Jiri Welsch, 6-6, European pro
