HOUSTON — Just like that, another strong campaign has turned into my worst record entering the Final Four in the six years of this column. Still, if this is worst, it can’t be all that bad.

Oklahoma (+2) over Villanova: There are only a handful of situations in which I would bet against Buddy Hield at this moment. It probably would require Steph Curry and/or LeBron James to be on the other side. With teams so evenly matched, having the best player on the floor makes all the difference. He is the one player who can do whatever he wants, whenever he wants. He is the one player who elicits ultimate confidence in any situation, who has as much confidence as every other player combined. He also is the one player who will leave you kicking yourself within two minutes if you go against him.

Syracuse (+9½) over North Carolina: Familiarity is the biggest advantage an underdog can get entering a mismatch. The Orange lost their two meetings against the Tar Heels this season, but will have no intimidation facing the best team in the country, carrying the confidence of a recent five-point loss in North Carolina. The Tar Heels have the edge inside, but Syracuse matches up well athletically and its zone will take the top-seeded team away from its strength, challenging North Carolina to beat it from outside. In a football stadium, the Tar Heels’ suspect 3-point shooting will allow the Orange to hang around.

2016 record: 31-28-2

2011-15 record: 106-68-5