ALL you had to do was watch the first 10 min-get an idea of how much the Patriots will miss Charlie Weis. And that isn’t to downplay the departures of Ty Law, Ted Johnson, Romeo Crennel or the frightening stroke that sidelined Tedy Bruschi.
The three-peat-seeking Pats are still the team to beat, mainly because when their bus pulls into your stadium parking lot, Bill Belichick, Corey Dillon and Tom Brady still get off. But Brady won’t be the same without Weis – he’ll make mistakes he’s never made before. The defense won’t lack in brainpower with the Evil Genius and new DC Eric Mangini, but the new Raider attack with Randy Moss and LaMont Jordan should give them enough match-up problems to keep this one within the fairly hefty number.
The pick: Raiders, +7 1/2
SUNDAY
Jets (+3) over CHIEFS
The Jets have the better defense, hands down. While you normally would give KC the same edge offensively, the steroid suspension to OL John Welbourne and the stent in Trent Green’s leg might make you think twice. And awesome Aussie Ben Graham’s foot grenades could even blunt the Dante Hall factor some.
GIANTS (-2 1/2) over Cards
Serby picks the Cards over the Giants – in a playoff game! Need we say more about that ridiculous notion? Yes, Dennis Green’s team is a chic contender pick, with J.J. Arrington joining Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. But a suspect OL will give Kurt Warner that familiar shell-shocked look vs. Big Blue.
DOLPHINS (+5) over Broncos
Dolphins probably are headed for another year in the cellar, but the hunch here is that Nick Saban will have them buzzing in the heat in his debut, and new QB Gus Frerotte has enough knowledge of his ex-team’s D to make this a late-field-goal game.
Bengals (-3 1/2) over BROWNS
There’s not a more morose team in sports than the Browns (at least until the New York Rangers return). Carson Palmer, now in his second year as a starter, will make better use of the vast weapons around him.
Texans (+4 1/2) over BILLS
Think the Texans weren’t thrilled to see Sept. 11 next to the word Buffalo when the schedule came out? Bills won eight of last 10 in 2004, but J.P. Losman’s going to have to prove he can play before I lay more than a FG to David Carr, Domanick Davis and Andre Johnson.
Titans (+7) over STEELERS
Titans were 5-11 in an injury-ravaged 2004, and have seen them forecast as low as 3-13. View from here is that a Steve McNair/Jeff Fisher team can’t get that bad, and that Ben Roethlisberger is headed for a sophomore season with fewer ups and more downs.
REDSKINS (-6) over Bears
Kyle Orton is Bears’ first rookie QB to start on opening day since Zeke Bratkow-ski in 1954. And Orton might be the least of their problems. This is one horrific team. Hard to lay almost a TD with the ‘Skins, but what’s the alternative?
Saints (+7) over PANTHERS
Don’t forget, Saints KO’d rampaging Cats from playoff hunt with a win at Carolina in Week 17. And Jim Haslett saved his job with four straight Ws to end at 8-8. Hard choice, with all that’s happened at home, but Saints may benefit from losing themselves in football.
Bucs (+6) over VIKINGS
Cadillac Williams improves the Bucs’ skill positions, and Joey Galloway and Michael Clayton aren’t bad as WR duo. Chris Hovan joins the DL in old stomping grounds, where we’re being told Vikes will be better without Randy Moss. We’ll see about that.
JAGUARS (-3) over Seahawks
Can’t wait to see WR Matt Jones, the 6-6, 242-pound ex-QB from Ar-kansas who will breathe new life into oldtimers Fred Taylor and Jimmy Smith. John Henderson and Jag D’s also too hot for Shaun Alexander and Co.
Rams (-5 1/2) over 49ERS
The 49ers could be worse than last season, if that’s possible. Don’t overthink the easy ones.
LIONS (-3) over Packers
Brett Favre’s still better than Joey Harrington will ever be, but the Lions have the makings of a decent defense, while that unit could implode on the Pack this season.
CHARGERS (-4 1/2) over Cowboys
Cowboys should make their way back to the playoffs with young studs Julius Jones and Demarcus Ware on either side of the ball. Yet, this spread seems a little light for a near-elite team at home.
Colts (-3) over RAVENS
Hey, Serby, why are your Super Bowl champs dogs at home in Week 1? Because the Colts, my SB champs, by the way, have Peyton Manning and you have Kyle Boller. Colts will win AFC home field and not have to step outside to win their first title in 35 years.
MONDAY NIGHT
FALCONS (+1 1/2) over Eagles
When last we saw these two, the Eagles won 27-10 in the NFC title game – without Terrell Owens. The dome and the carpet make this a closer call, and we’ll soon see if Mike Vick and the Falcons are the NFL’s best birds in ’05.
BEST BETS: Rams, Giants, Bengals.
