In the fifth of a six-part series, the Fantasy Tracker helps prepare you for your fantasy football draft. This week, we take a look at draft-day busts. Next week: sleepers.
Every superhero has villains. Every epic story has an antagonist. And every fantasy draft has busts.
Sometimes, there’s no way to avoid a devastating pick — normally because injuries can’t be forecast (like Jamaal Charles last season).
But often, if you look, you can see an evil plot in the works. Sometimes, players routinely are picked higher than they should be — their upside not enough to justify such high selections, or the potential for disaster too great to take an early risk. Avoiding these traps goes a long way toward a successful season.
BIG BUST
To say we are avoiding Adrian Peterson doesn’t state our stance strongly enough. We avoid him like the plague. We steer around him “All Day” long.
Sure, his talent warrants a first-round pick. Of course, his past production demands attention. The fact, when on the field, he is the go-to back between the 20s and on the goal line makes him a threat in any fantasy format.
But a crippling knee injury (torn ACL and MCL) on Christmas Eve puts everything into question. The Vikings put him on the PUP list July 27, where he stayed until Aug. 13. Reports indicate he will try to return for the start of the season.
In many leagues, he is being drafted in the second and third rounds. For those owners who pick him that early, All Day quickly will become the Bane of their fantasy existence.
You often hear it takes a year to recover from these types of injuries. Even if medical science has advanced since the “year-long recovery” became the default amateur diagnosis, we still are talking about an eight-month vs. 12-month recovery. You do the math.
And history isn’t on Peterson’s side. Terrell Davis tore his ACL and MCL in 1999 — he never was the same again. After Edgerrin James torn his ACL in 2001, his 2002 season was severely hampered, and he never again reached the heights of his first two seasons. Ronnie Brown, Jamal Anderson, Deuce McAllister … all suffered knee injuries, none ever reached his pre-injury production.
We’re not burying AP’s career just yet. But we are staying away this season. Figure two things can happen.
1. The Vikings rush his recovery, allow him to play early in the season. If this happens, don’t expect him to come close to his level of play in previous seasons. Plus, there’s an elevated risk of reinjury.
If Scenario 1 is the case, the Tracker [ital] might [end ital] consider spending a fifth- or sixth-round pick on him (think, third RB spot) — and cross our fingers against injury. But that’s irrelevant, since he will be drafted long before we would be faced with such a decision.
2: The team keeps him on the PUP list, he sits out the first six games, they work him back into the mix slowly, and he starts to show glimpses of his explosiveness late in the season.
In Scenario 2, he holds some value — but nothing close to that of a second- or third-round pick. He is worthy of your fourth or fifth RB slot, nothing more. That means rounds 8-10, just a few rounds before Rashard Mendenhall (who suffered a similar injury late in the season). Peterson will be long gone by that time.
As long as the Vikings don’t try to run Peterson too hard too soon, we think he can make it back to full form, too. It just won’t be this year.
OTHER BUSTS
Exit LaDainian Tomlinson, enter Tim Tebow. Shonn Greene just can’t catch a break. The Jets’ “feature” back always seems to get second billing.
Forget Joe McKnight or Bilal Powell stealing carries. What concerns us is this: Tebow likely will get goal-line carries that otherwise would go to Greene, and the Jets’ air attack isn’t strong enough to keep defenses from stacking the box to defend the run.
Reggie Bush had a monster season in 2011, carrying the bulk of the load in Miami and putting to rest durability concerns. Well, most durability concerns. Count the Tracker among those who still may be concerned. Bush’s frame isn’t going to change — he still will be 6-foot tall and around 200-205 pounds. He still could be productive, but we think the Dolphins will limit his touches this season, smartly so, if Daniel Thomas is healthy. We can also see the younger Thomas becoming a TD vulture.
If you’re married to a RB in the rounds 6-8, go with Doug Martin, BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Beanie Wells instead of Greene or Bush.
There are a surprising number of quality wide receivers who should be available when you get to rounds 5-7. Don’t count Percy Harvin among them. We are fed up with the headache of having him on our roster. His production has been spotty throughout his career. He plays on a squad that doesn’t pass the ball well. And, we don’t believe the player who normally would demand the most defensive attention (Peterson) will be on the field. There are much more reliable options around the same time — Brandon Lloyd, Ahmad Bradshaw, Peyton Manning, Antonio Gates, Demaryius Thomas, Jeremy Maclin, Vernon Davis, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers … There’s more, but we digress.
dloftis@nypost.com
