CINCINNATI — Hang up the shoes. Put away the suit. Cancel the hair appointment.
That invitation to The Big Dance may be rescinded. At least, it hasn’t been sent out yet, not with the way St. John’s has finished the regular season.
The Johnnies sure seem intent on missing the NCAA Tournament. The latest example was another dismal performance, a near wire-to-wire, 81-68 loss to Xavier at the Cintas Center in which the Musketeers were without leading scorer Naji Marshall and got just 19 minutes from starting power forward Tyrique Jones.
After its third consecutive defeat and fourth in five games, Chris Mullin’s team will have to play in the outbracket round of the Big East Tournament as the seventh seed, against No. 10 DePaul on Wednesday night, needing a win to avoid the potential doomsday scenario of the NIT.
After this setback dropped them to 20-11 overall and a pedestrian 8-10 in the conference, St. John’s didn’t talk about its suddenly precarious spot in regard to the NCAA Tournament, preferring to focus on the conference tournament. It would be a good idea for them to avoid the elephant in the room — reaching the field of 68 was viewed as a prerequisite for a successful campaign after three straight losing seasons under Mullin.
Since St. John’s defeated Villanova on Feb. 17, I’ve felt their résumé was strong enough to make the NCAAs, barring a collapse. They have five Quadrant 1 victories (wins against teams rated 1-30 in the NET at home, 1-50 at neutral sites and 1-75 on the road) and three Quadrant 3 and 4 losses combined. They have seven victories away from home. It is, however, worth noting that the last Big East team that finished under .500 in the conference to make the NCAA Tournament was Connecticut — way back in 2012.
Three respected Bracketologists — Jerry Palm of CBS, Dave Ommen of Bracketville and Brad Wachtel of Facts and Bracks — told me this week the only scenario in which they could envision the Red Storm being left out of the NCAA field would be if they were to lose to Xavier then lose again on Wednesday of the Big East Tournament to a low-ranked opponent. If their NET rating fell into the 70s (it entered the day at 62), it could be a concern. The bubble is that weak, with teams that lack résumés as strong as that of St. John’s. The seeding committee doesn’t factor in how a team finishes any longer. Wins in November matter as much as wins in March.
Still, it appears Mullin’s team wants to see how far they can push this, to roll the dice on championship week and see if there are enough bid thieves to knock them out.
The Johnnies have not looked like a tournament team since the win over Villanova. They have lost their past three games by a combined 33 points, not coming close in any of them. They fell to Providence, which will be seeded eighth in the conference tourney, by 19. The one win was an overtime nailbiter against Butler at home.
Maybe everyone — me included — overrated this team. Experts have described them as the most talented team in the Big East, but the lack of a quality big man has been a glaring hole. St. John’s is dead last in the Big East in rebounding margin, defensive rebounding percentage and offensive rebounding percentage. It has been outshot from the free-throw line by an obscene 95-42 over the past three games, and it certainly didn’t help that sophomore forward Sedee Keita wasn’t available after failing to “fulfill team responsibilities.”
Most concerning is the fact the biggest edge this team has, its quickness and shotmaking on the perimeter, has gone missing. Shamorie Ponds and Mustapha Heron were supposed to form the league’s premier duo but have rarely played well at the same time, and neither has been at his best of late. Marvin Clark II, the team’s lone senior, shot 2-of-11 from the field on Saturday, and has run hot and cold.
Mullin was critical of his players. He wondered how his team has been unable to take advantage of mismatches — guards being defended by forwards — yet get so exposed on the other end of the floor.
“We’ve had bigs guard our guards pretty well,” he said. “I think to me that [should be] somewhat impossible. We’ve got somewhat of a small team, and to me when I look at a small team, it’s the more active team both offensively and defensively. A lot of times that’s not the case [with us]. We’re chasing them. They should be chasing us.”
When asked why that is, Mullin replied: “That’s a good question.”
The answer is needed fast. Without it, St. John’s risks making Selection Sunday a dark night in Queens.
