I T WAS about 4 o’clock on the afternoon of Nov. 30 when this column instituted a new, unbreakable golden rule: There will no picking against the Patriots, for any reason, until the day after Bill Belichick has resigned as H.C. of the N.E.P.
For in the Friday Bettor’s Guide two days earlier, I went against all of my instincts and some hard-learned lessons (see: Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI) and surmised that if there is any quarterback in this era capable of blunting the impact of this defensive evil genius, it is Manning and his uncanny, last-second audibles.
On the whole, the logic wasn’t totally discredited. Manning threw for 278 yards, four TD passes and just one INT in leading the Colts back from deficits of 17-0 and 31-10. The Indy special teams were the real culprits, giving up an unconscionable kickoff-return TD to Bethel Johnson on the last play of the first half and another long Johnson jaunt to set up the score that made it 38-31 Patriots.
But it was the final sequence that was most telling. Down 38-34, the Colts had a first-and-goal from the 2 with under a minute to go. Manning could size up the defense and run any play in the Colts’ playbook, or any play he could think of, for that matter. First down, Edgerrin James to the 1. Second down, James for no gain. Third down, Manning incomplete to Aaron Moorehead. Fourth down, James into the line, blown up by linebacker Willie McGinest.
So, in a game in which his defense gave up 34 points, Belichick ruled in the end. Manning blamed the failure on injuries to the Colts’ goal-line offensive package, which was true, but still is the case now.
So here come Manning and the Colts off perhaps the most impressive back-to-back offensive playoff performances ever. Heck, the team didn’t punt once in annihilating Denver and outscoring KC. Belichick faced this predicament in his last two Super Bowl wins, as the Giants’ defensive coordinator vs. the Bills and in the Rams-Pats Super Bowl. In both games, his MO was to have his secondary brutalize the wide receivers early. This kept the likes of Andre Reed and Isaac Bruce from roaming the middle of the field with abandon. He’ll do this again vs. Marvin Harrison, who’ll come in with bruised ribs. The Giants didn’t hit Jim Kelly much but the Pats got to Kurt Warner a lot.
Of course, Belichick’s teams needed big performances from Ottis Anderson, Jeff Hostetler, Tom Brady, a missed kick by Scott Norwood and a clutch kick by Adam Vinatieri. But that’s where the Patriots’ almost-forgotten offense comes in. Brady will direct a short-passing, ball-control offense against a Colt D that the Chiefs shredded. They’ll keep the ball 35 minutes, not giving Manning much time to score the amount of points he’s surely going to need.
The picks: Patriots -3 and over 431/2.
Panthers (+4) over EAGLES
Over 36½
Not saying that John Fox’s Panthers are going to go into Philly and deny the Eagles that elusive Super Bowl trip in their third consecutive NFC Championship Game.
After watching Donovan McNabb save the Eagles’ season with a fourth-and-26 strike to Freddie Mitchell, one could get the feeling that this is Philly’s year to go to the show. McNabb’s will to win is enormous, and his ability to fight adversity with a team that after all of its injuries is little better than average is amazing.
But some developments in this playoff year suggest that the Panthers will shave this one razor-close, or even play from in front. For one, Fox was with the Giants when they owned the Eagles for a few seasons. For another, he has a big-time pass rush, and McNabb was sacked eight times by the Packers last week. And offensively, Jake Delhomme has made big plays in the passing game to Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad, and DeShaun Foster has picked up the slack for injured Stephen Davis.
These teams also met on Nov. 30, with the Eagles winning 25-16 in Charlotte as Panthers kicker John Kasay missed three makeable field goals and an extra point. Put those points on the board and that game’s a toss-up, just like this one.
LAST WEEK: 1-3 games, 4-0 over/unders.
