If not this year, when will the Red Sox beat the Yankees in October? Las Vegas has installed Boston as the favorite to win the ALCS that opens tonight with Game 1 at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees? They have their fingers tightly crossed their bats can overcome what is the shakiest October rotation Joe Torre has ever had.
FIRST BASE
You have to watch John Olerud every day to appreciate what a slick-fielding first baseman can do for a team. However, this is a corner position in the AL, so you need more than the .214 (3-for-14) Olerud hit against the Twins. Bosox go with Kevin Millar, who isn’t the defender Olerud is but has a solid stick. Doug Mientkiewicz provides late-inning defense.
EDGE: RED SOX
SECOND BASE
Miguel Cairo is as solid a second baseman the Yankees have had in quite a while. He makes all the plays, moves up runners, and is a pesky batter who slipped to .214 (3-for-14) in the ALDS after a .292 regular season. Mark Bellhorn walks and strikes out a lot. He batted .091 (1-for-11) against the Angels.
EDGE: YANKEES
THIRD BASE
This is not good news for the Red Sox. The same position that killed them in Game 7 last year has been upgraded heavily by replacing Aaron “Bleeping” Boone with Alex Rodriguez, who excelled versus the Twins. Bill Mueller is a very good player who suffers from occasional defensive problems.
EDGE: YANKEES
SHORTSTOP
Nomar Garciaparra against Derek Jeter used to be a heated debate. Now Orlando Cabrera brings scintillating defense to the middle of the infield. However, he isn’t Jeter, because nobody is in October.
EDGE: YANKEES
LEFT FIELD
MVP candidate Manny Ramirez is the premier run-producer in baseball, but Bosox fans still hold their breath when the ball is in the air and Ramirez is underneath it. Hideki Matsui is the most underrated player on the Yankees and he’s coming off a big ALDS.
EDGE: EVEN
CENTER FIELD
Johnny Damon gets lost in the attention paid to David Ortiz and Ramirez but he is the catalyst for the best lineup in baseball. His weak arm doesn’t hurt him here because Bernie Williams is a below-average thrower.
EDGE: RED SOX
RIGHT FIELD
Gary Sheffield enjoyed an MVP-type season in his first as a Yankee. Left-shoulder pain caused a slow finish that melted into a .222 (4-for-18) ALDS. He is to the Yankees’ lineup what Ramirez is to Boston’s. Because the Yankees don’t have a lefty starting pitcher, Trot Nixon, the Red Sox’s most underrated player, will be in right all the time.
EDGE: YANKEES
CATCHER
Jason Varitek doesn’t hit against the Yankees and batted .167 (2-for-12) against the Angels but he is worth his weight for the way he works behind the plate, especially with Pedro Martinez. Jorge Posada didn’t have his best year at bat and struggled against the Twins (.222; 4-for-18 with six strikeouts).
EDGE: EVEN
DESIGNATED HITTER
David Ortiz has developed from a part-time player in Minnesota to a legitimate superstar in Boston thanks to a lethal left-handed bat that is the perfect compliment to Ramirez’s muscle from the EPA right side. Ortiz is coming off an David Ortiz ALDS in which he batted .545 (6-for-11) and won Game 4 with a walkoff homer. Ruben Sierra is a wonderful story, and his three-run homer in Game 4 against the Twins was clutch, but he isn’t Ortiz.
EDGE: RED SOX
STARTING ROTATION
Curt Schilling is better than any Yankee arm, and the Yankees have big questions behind Mike Mussina, who will face Schilling in Game 1. Martinez ran up the white flag the last time the Yankees beat him with his famous “daddies” quote. Jon Lieber, Kevin Brown and Javier Vazquez all come with baggage. The Red Sox back up Martinez and Schilling with Bronson Arroyo and Tim Wakefield.
EDGE: RED SOX
BULLPEN
Mariano Rivera’s state of mind after a family tragedy has to be an issue. Tom Gordon and Rivera gave the Yankees the best late-game duo in baseball. Keith Foulke was a major upgrade for Boston. Mike Timlin and Alan Embree are effective, and Derek Lowe adds length.
EDGE: YANKEES
BENCH
Kenny Lofton and Tony Clark provide Joe Torre with veterans who can do several things. If Lofton DHs or plays center field then Torre has Sierra on the bench, where the manager likes him. Bubba Crosby provides speed and defense. Terry Francona has Gabe Kapler, Doug Mirabelli and Pokey Reese.
EDGE: YANKEES
MANAGER
Blamed for the Red Sox’s problems in June, you have to credit Francona for their turnaround. However, he hasn’t been through what he is going to experience. Torre’s experience always comes in handy.
EDGE: YANKEES
COMPARING STATS
POSITION AVG. HR RBIs
Catcher
Posada .272 21 81
Varitek .296 18 73
First base
Olerud .259 9 48
Millar .297 18 74
Second base
Cairo .292 6 42
Bellhorn .264 17 82
Third base
Rodriguez .286 36 106
Mueller .283 12 57
Left field
Matsui .298 31 108
Ramirez .308 43 130
Center field
Williams .262 22 70
Damon .304 20 94
Right field
Sheffield .290 36 121
Nixon .315 6 23
Designated Hitter
Sierra .244 17 65
Ortiz .301 41 139
YANKEE STARTERS
W-L ERA SO
Mussina 12-9 4.59 132
Lieber 14-8 4.33 102
Brown 10-6 4.09 83
Vazquez 14-10 4.91 150
Hernandez 8-2 3.30 84
RED SOX STARTERS
W-L ERA SO
Curt Schilling 21-6 3.26 203
Martinez 16-9 3.90 227
Arroyo 10-9 4.03 142
Wakefield 12-10 4.87 116
Lowe 14-12 5.42 105
YANKEE RELIEVERS
W-L ERA SO
Rivera 4-2 1.94 66
Gordon 9-4 2.21 96
Quantrill 7-3 4.72 37
Sturtze 6-2 5.47 56
Heredia 1-1 6.28 25
RED SOX RELIEVERS
W-L ERA SO
Foulke 5-3 2.17 79
Timlin 5-4 4.13 56
Embree 2-2 4.13 37
Myers 1-0 4.20 9
Leskanic 3-2 3.58 22
