THE last two furlongs of the marathon Belmont Stakes will trip War Emblem and deny him the coveted Triple Crown.
That’s the analytical opinion of an experienced horseman, Murray Johnson, who will saddle Perfect Drift in the race in the confident belief that his horse will be the spoiler to rob the champ of the title.
“Did you see how that longshot [Magic Weisner] was overhauling War Emblem at the finish of the Preakness?” Johnson said yesterday, from his training headquarters in Louisville. “He was gaining five lengths to War Emblem’s one. Well, War Emblem will have to go more than two furlongs further in the Belmont. I don’t think he’ll make it.”
So War Emblem is beatable?
“Absolutely,” said Johnson.
But form, distance and pedigree are not the only reasons Johnson thinks War Emblem’s winning streak may be about to come to an abrupt end.
The trainer, an Australian transplant, operates on a strong philosophical conviction that in horse racing, as in life, nothing stays in place, that the pendulum is always moving.
“Things went well for War Emblem in the Derby and the Preakness, but in one of these races, things are going to go well for somebody else and not so well for him,” Johnson said.
“I always say – when you’re having good luck, appreciate it and enjoy it, but just remember that the balance of life will mean a certain amount of bad luck is coming your way.”
In other words, Johnson thinks War Emblem might already have had his share of good fortune and it’s about to run out, especially in the last quarter of the Belmont Stakes.
Johnson served a long apprenticeship with horses, working for some of the best known trainers in the world – Bart Cummings in Australia, the National Stud in Ireland, Shug McGaughey, Carl Nafzger and John Gosden in the U.S. – before branching out on his own.
Perfect Drift is his dream ticket. Never off the board in seven lifetime starts, Perfect Drift rocketed into Classic contention with a dramatic late rush to win the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park in March.
The victory was so impressive that horseplayers sent him off third choice at 7-1 in the Kentucky Derby. Perfect Drift did not disappoint. Though his natural closing style was hopelessly compromised by the dawdling pace, Perfect Drift sat in third spot all the way, fighting his rider – but still finished third, less than five lengths behind War Emblem.
Johnson skipped the Preakness to concentrate on the Belmont, believing the Belmont’s mile and a half will suit Perfect Drift, well, perfectly.
The catch is that the horse has not raced in five weeks, historically, a huge handicap to overcome when competing at that distance at top level. All Woody Stephens’ five straight Belmont winners ran within 14 days or less of the race.
Johnson noted that Perfect Drift had a six-week gap between the Spiral and the Derby and now it will be five weeks to the Belmont.
“We’ve given him a lot of work and his running style will enable him to relax and just cruise around Belmont, then finish better than anything else,” said Johnson.
Just as Touch Gold swooped to deny Silver Charm the Triple Crown in 1997, just as Victory Gallop swooped to nail Real Quiet in the last stride of his Triple Crown bid in 1998, so Johnson envisages Perfect Drift running over the top of War Emblem at the finish Saturday.
“War Emblem is a very talented horse with great speed,” said Johnson. “But he was cooked at the end of the Preakness. I don’t know who will pressure him early in the Belmont, but I do know his greatest pressure is going to be the distance.”
Johnson said Perfect Drift is a “picture of health.” He concluded, “With the added distance of the Belmont, we’re going up to New York with great expectations.”
