Expect San Diego State to attack the paint from the opening tip until the final horn on Friday night. The eighth-seeded Aztecs are well aware No. 9 St. John’s will be without forward Chris Obekpa, one of the nation’s most feared shot-blockers who was suspended Sunday for two weeks for testing posting for marijuana use, in their South Region second-round contest in Charlotte.
“It takes their eraser away,” San Diego State Steve Fisher told reporters on Tuesday. “Now, if they get beat, they’re a little more vulnerable at the rim because they don’t have that eraser back there. So I think that is a factor.”
The Aztecs aren’t known for their outside shooting — they make just 32 percent from beyond the arc — and have the depth in big men to make St. John’s pay inside if they can get into the heart of the Red Storm defense.
“We’re going to focus on trying to get in the paint and draw a lot of fouls, try and get to the free-throw line,” San Diego State forward Dwayne Polee II, a transfer from St. John’s, said in a phone interview. “They’re going to have to go to four guards. It will create a lot of mismatch problems.”
Obekpa’s absence won’t shorten Steve Lavin’s rotation. The St. John’s coach said on WFAN he plans to use eight players against San Diego and press the Aztecs full court, with the hopes of speeding up the game and creating transition opportunities for the undersized Johnnies.
The plan comes as somewhat of a surprise, considering St. John’s has mostly used a six-man rotation when Obekpa was active, using forwards Joey De La Rosa, Amar Alibegovic and guard Felix Balamou in spot duty. There is also the possibility Lavin could go to redshirt sophomore forward Christian Jones or sharpshooting redshirt freshman Myles Stewart , who was impressive early on this season, but hasn’t played meaningful minutes in months .
Of the possible reinforcements, Alibegovic, a freshman from Bosnia, averages the most minutes, at 8.5 per game.
Long Beach State coach Dan Monson, the only coach to have faced both teams, said he expects the game to come down to the final seconds.
“Whoever wills the other style on the other team will win,” Monson said. “San Diego State is probably the best defensive team we played all year.”
Long Beach State fell, 60-59, to San Diego State Dec. 10, and also lost to St. John’s, 66-49, on Dec. 22, when dynamic sophomore guard Rysheed Jordan was out with the flu.
“They were able to score off their defense and get in the open court,” Monson said of St. John’s. “If they can do that, they’re going to have great success against San Diego State. If San Diego State can get them in a half-court situation with their athletes, St. John’s will have trouble scoring. It will be fun to watch.
“If it comes a defensive struggle, a low-scoring game, it favors San Diego State. If it gets above 65, 70 points, I favor St. John’s.”
