The 2012 Orioles feel a little bit like the 1993 Yankees to me.
Both teams had endured long stretches of failure. Baltimore has not been above .500 or to the playoffs since 1997. The 1993 Yanks were trying to end a 12-year playoff drought and escape from having the next-to-worst record in the majors over the previous four seasons.
Both teams had Buck Showalter in his second full season as their manager. And both teams had the misfortune of chasing a longtime powerhouse: The 1993 Yankees in pursuit of the defending champion Blue Jays and these Orioles on the tail of the Yankees.
In both cases, it never truly felt as if the long shot would prevail. The 1993 Yankees actually moved into a tie for first on Sept. 6, a day after Jim Abbott no-hit the Indians. But even then Toronto seemed just too superior to lose and went on to win their second straight World Series. The Yankees went 10-14 over the final 24 to finally fall out of the race.
The 2012 Orioles have had more sustainability than expected; certainly more than other half-season upstarts like the Mets and Indians. Baltimore holds second place in the AL East. Yet the belief is that if the Yankees are to be truly threatened this season in the AL East, it will come out of Tampa or, perhaps, Boston.
Look, maybe the Orioles will stun everyone and keep this going for six months, turn Camden Yards into a great baseball stage again for September and, gulp, maybe even October.
But the other item Orioles fans might be interested in is this: The 1993 Yankees won 88 games, have never been under .500 since and have been the majors’ dominant team the past two decades. We could see Showalter changing the culture on that club by fumigating bad actors from the clubhouse while incubating a professionalism about preparation that lingers to today. What we couldn’t see was that percolating down below nearing the majors were Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte.
In 2012 — thanks mainly to the internet — we are much more aware of the minors and we know that in Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado, Baltimore has two elite prospects whose arrival date is not far away. In fact, while Bundy is only 19 and at High-A, the Orioles have been regulating his innings in such a way to make him, at the least, a consideration for their major league staff, likely out of the pen, in September should they remain playoff contenders. The fourth pick in the 2011 draft has just 79 innings (96 strikeouts) this season.
Machado is almost certain not to get the call this September despite holding his own as a 20-year-old shortstop at Double-A. But he is expected to go to the Orioles’ Instructional League to play third, which could be his quickest route to the majors; perhaps allowing him to get to The Show to begin next year.
Machado is 6-foot-3 and from South Florida and has drawn comparisons to his idol, Alex Rodriguez, who in a full-circle irony grew up idolizing a tall Orioles shortstop named Cal Ripken Jr. Machado and A-Rod worked out together at the University of Miami last winter and Showalter recently compared Machado’s heightened baseball inquisitiveness to that of Rodriguez, whom Showalter managed in Texas. Rodriguez and Ripken both made the transition to third base, but later in their careers and, obviously, Machado’s projected offense is more helpful at shortstop. So Baltimore will have to decide with both Machado and Bundy how quickly and in what roles they want to get these potential stars to the majors.
But after so many horrible seasons and failed rebuilds, Baltimore will — at worst — have two of the 10 best prospects in the sport to begin next year and the 2013 Orioles — like the 1994 Yankees — will have the platform of a strong season combined with starry youngsters on the come to try to cement a powerful, long-term future.
Weaver a wonder out West
Justin Verlander matched his career-high with 14 strikeouts Monday and beat the high-profile Yankees, and that seemed right — because it assured Jered Weaver’s national profile would remain low.
Weaver improved to 15-1 with a four-hitter later Monday night. But he did it on the West Coast, against the A’s and, thus, the most overshadowed great pitcher in the sport remained that way.
Weaver leads the majors in ERA (2.13), OPS against (.542) and relative anonymity. He is in the midst of lowering his ERA for a fourth straight season from 4.33 in 2008 to 3.75, 3.01, 2.41 and this year’s 2.13.
How many folks would put Weaver on the list of durable/elite starters? But since the start of the 2009 season, these are the pitchers with 800 or more innings and sub-3.00 ERAs: Verlander, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Matt Cain and Weaver.
I always wonder if being the brother of Jeff Weaver, who faded so quickly after early success and famously failed as a Yankee, has hurt the perception of Jered. By 29, however, Jeff Weaver was done as a good major league pitcher, except for one late-season run at age 30 to help the Cardinals win the 2006 World Series. Jered turns 30 in October and there is no fade insight. Quite the opposite: He appears to be getting better.
Burn hot, Nova not
It Is a lot easier to pitch in the NL Central than the AL East and in Pittsburgh rather than New York, but A.J. Burnett is proving this to the extreme. He has pitched eight or more innings and given up two or fewer runs in four starts this year — or as many as he did in his three seasons with the Yankees. Overall, he is 14-3 with a 3.19 ERA and — wait for it — is viewed as the mature ace of a team in a pennant race.
The last time the Pirates had a qualifying starter with an ERA lower than Burnett’s current mark was — I am not kidding — Oliver Perez in 2004 at 2.98. Conversely, Burnett owns the second-worst ERA (5.26 in 2010) and sixth worst (5.15 in 2011) in Yankee history for a qualifying pitcher.
And don’t look now, but the guy trending into bad Burnett territory is Ivan Nova. His 4.81 ERA is the 15th worst in team history between two guys you don’t want to be between in Yankees lore — Hideki Irabu (4.84, 1999) and Andy Hawkins (4.80 in 1989).
