Never bet against Bob Baffert in the Preakness Stakes, especially when he brings in a Kentucky Derby winner. He and 19th century trainer R. Wyndham Walden share the record with seven victories each in this race.
Baffert can have it all to himself if either Authentic or Thousand Words wins this first-ever autumn running of the Preakness. When he brings a Kentucky Derby winner to Baltimore, Baffert is 5-for-5, and Authentic is favored to maintain that perfect record. Baffert’s two most recent Preakness wins came with Triple Crown champions American Pharoah and Justify.
Obviously there will be no such sweep this year; the Belmont Stakes is long past, and the winner Tiz The Law will not be at Pimlico. But Authentic is certainly in the running for Horse of the Year if he meets the expectations of the betting public.
Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez is up again as he was in the Derby, and he will be looking to complete the career Triple Crown on a colt that has won five of his six starts. Authentic’s only loss was a runner-up finish to the now-retired Honor A. P. in the Santa Anita Derby, and that was before Velazquez came aboard.
Main contenders
I will nominate Art Collector to chase Authentic home. I love his rider, Brian Hernandez Jr. Hernandez has been Art Collector’s exercise rider for trainer Tommy Drury, who would have been asked to hand the horse off to trainer Rusty Arnold had he not done such a good job with him during the spring. Before he grabbed a quarter in a morning gallop to knock himself out of the Kentucky Derby, Art Collector won all four of his starts this year, including the Blue Grass.
The surprise to me was trainer Kenny McPeek’s entry of Swiss Skydiver, the runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks and the first filly in six years to be entered in the Preakness. She also finished second to Art Collector in the Blue Grass, so she can clearly keep up with the boys.
Value plays
The top three contenders all exhibit early speed, and on the surface it would appear Thousand Words does, too. But his August victory at Del Mar with a 104 Beyer was against only three other horses. Against bigger fields he has stalked the pace, and there is every reason to think he will do it again at Pimlico.
Deep closers Mr. Big News and Max Player finished third and fifth, respectively, in the Derby, and they will be relying on the early speed to come back to them late in the race. Ny Traffic tried to keep up with Authentic at Churchill Downs before he withered to an eighth-place finish. Pneumatic may stalk the pace as he did winning the Pegasus at Monmouth Park. He and Max Player are trained by Steve Asmussen, as is Excession, a colt coming off a six-month break after finishing a close second in the Rebel Stakes.
$100 wagering strategy: $50 Win-Place on Authentic.
Top four picks: Authentic, Art Collector, Swiss Skydiver, Thousand Words.
