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We’re barreling toward the business end of the 2023 college football season and that means every Saturday will be headlined by a handful of high-stakes games.

This weekend bettors and fans alike will be treated to Michigan vs. Penn State, Georgia vs. Ole Miss, Washington vs. Utah, Miami vs. Florida State and Oregon vs. USC, but we’re not here to gush about the best games on the card.

There’s enough places you can go for that.

Instead, we’re here to highlight one of the ugliest games on the betting board because that is often where you can find the best value.

So buckle up and get ready for a wild ride as we break down what should be a fun one between Arkansas State and South Alabama from beautiful Mobile, Ala.

Before the season started you could make the case that Arkansas State had a decent chance to be one of the worst teams in all of college football.

The Red Wolves were 5-19 combined in their last two seasons and there were no real signs of improvement, especially for a defense that could not stop anybody.

A 73-0 loss to Oklahoma out of the gates was followed up with a 34-point defeat against Memphis.

The Red Wolves looked well on their way to the bottom of the FBS. 

But one of the reasons we love college football so much is that a whole program’s fortune can change in either direction with one break.

And for Arkansas State that change came when freshman Jaylen Raynor was named the starting quarterback.

Raynor, who was third on the depth chart to start the season, completely changed the look of this Arkansas State offense thanks to his dual-threat ability.

With Raynor under center, Arkansas State not only has a good shot at qualifying for a bowl game — something that seemed highly unlikely two months ago — but the Red Wolves also have a (very slim) chance of going to the Sun Belt Championship.

There’s plenty at stake for this once-left-for-dead team.

South Alabama is in a very different situation.

The Jaguars were one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt in the summer and backed up the hype with an upset at Oklahoma State in September, but things have been helter-skelter since that monumental win.

Things came to a head last week when South Alabama’s season was effectively ended with a loss to Troy.

Although the Jaguars will still be playing for bowl eligibility, the defeat to their in-state rival put to bed any hope of South Alabama getting to the conference championship game. 

Now riding a two-game losing streak, South Alabama will need to pick itself up for a game against a team that is feeling its oats.

The Red Wolves have won two on the spin and is averaging 31.2 points per game since Raynor took over under center. 

The Jaguars will likely have their way with the Arkansas State defense, but the Red Wolves have every chance of answering every South Alabama score in this contest and keeping this thing tight.

Not only do I think the Red Wolves are worth a bet to cover this double-digit spread, but Arkansas State profiles as a live underdog in a big letdown spot for South Alabama.

Go with Arkansas State +13.5.