This is going to be a weird week. 

The famed AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will feature just one player ranked inside the world’s top-10 (Patrick Cantlay), two others inside the top-20 (Jordan Spieth and Daniel Berger) and a total of 10 inside the top-50. 

Lengthy rounds with amateur partners on three courses in often-chilly conditions has kept the Clambake from featuring a wide assortment of the game’s elite players, but those numbers are especially down this week, because the Saudi International has essentially doubled-up on the talent level. 

Perhaps that will mean more of an edge for those few superstars who made the trip to the Monterey Peninsula. Perhaps it will offer an advantage to the handful of players who tend to play well here every single year. Or perhaps it will just open the door for a long shot, which wouldn’t be uncharacteristic. 

In each of the last three even-numbered years of this tourney, a triple-digit outright has prevailed: Vaughn Taylor (200/1) in 2016, Ted Potter, Jr. (300/1) in 2018 and Nick Taylor (125/1) in 2020. 

I’m not dipping quite that far for my favorite outright play, but I am passing on those short numbers at the top of the board this week. 

Last summer, after a three-win Korn Ferry campaign launched an in-season promotion to the big tour, Pereira was seemingly everybody’s favorite to strike while his irons were hot and win at the next level, too. It hasn’t happened yet, but with a solo third at the Fortinet, T-4 at the Olympics, T-5 at the Barbasol and T-6 at the 3M, he has come close enough to affirm our collective feelings about his abilities. 

While he hasn’t played this specific event before, his third KFT win similarly came at a pro-am event, which at least suggests he won’t be a fish out of water this week. 

And then there’s this, which has proven to be an effective and predictive way of finding winners over the first month of this year: Hideki Matsuyama finished T-13 in his first start of 2022, then won the next week in his second start; Hudson Swafford finished T-48 in his first start, then won the next week; Luke List finished T-22 before winning; and now there’s Pereira, who made his first appearance of the year at Torrey Pines and finished a solid T-25. It makes sense, as we’re targeting those who are neither playing a third week in a row, nor contended at their first start (but didn’t MC, either). 

Essentially, the formula shows that four rounds of reps have been a nice stepping stone to success. Coming off a typical above average tee-to-green performance, the man who ranks seventh in strokes gained on approach shots should give himself plenty of opportunities on three of the shorter host venues we’ll see all season. 

Fresh off a final-round 4-under 68 that left him in a share of sixth place at Torrey, I like him to finish at least one spot higher against a less ferocious field of fellow competitors. 

It took Tringale 10 tries to finish top-10 here, but he finally bagged a T-7 last year, thanks to bookend 67s. Swinging it well right now, I like him to have another one of those close-but-no-cigar finishes, as he’s finished top-10 in three of his last five starts dating back to the fall.