Are the Giants ready for Drew Brees?
If you can answer that question, Sunday’s Giants-Saints game picks itself. The Saints are short road favorites. Drew Brees covers spreads like that easily against defenses that aren’t ready for him!
New Orleans laid short prices in two true road games last season. Those were victories of 26-17 at shorthanded Green Bay as favorites of 3¹/₂ points and 47-10 at Buffalo as two-point chalk. (The Saints also beat Miami at Wembley Stadium in London, 20-0, when laying four points).
It’s tough to get a true read on the Giants’ pass defense so far in 2018. They’ve faced inconsistent Blake Bortles, disappointing Dak Prescott and inexperienced Deshaun Watson. Watson put up a lot of yards last week, but much of that came in the middle of the field when playing from behind.
Brees and the Saints posted a net passing line of 39-49-3-0-391 last week in Atlanta. They didn’t turn the ball over a single time in an extended overtime affair. Brees was sacked only once. In their season opener vs. Tampa Bay, the net passing line was 37-45-3-0-432 with one sack. The
G-men can’t let that happen!
Let’s see what we can learn from Big Blue’s pass-defense rankings to date:
Giants’ 2018 pass defense rankings
Completion percentage: 3rd
Opponent passer rating: 11th
TD/INT differential: 14th
Yards per pass: 17th
Sacks: 29th
That suggests a unit that doesn’t pressure the quarterback enough to get sacks, but disrupts him enough to limit the percentage of completions. Great coverage. These are middle-of-the-road numbers otherwise, against quarterbacks sputtering through the slow lane. That isn’t good news vs. a Ferrari such as Brees.
Sharps know swirling winds at this site often hurt quarterbacks. Were this game scheduled for November or December, it would be easier to like the Giants’ chances of thwarting the high-powered Saints offense. Sunday’s forecast looks friendly for offenses. That probably limits any sort of “first 2018 game outdoors” penalty for the visitors. (After the leaves turn, remember that opponents who rely on downfield passing will underachieve their norms when visiting the Giants or Jets.)
This far, against the market, the Giants were +3 and lost 20-15 vs. Jacksonville (two-point miss); they were +3 at Dallas and lost 20-13 (four-point miss); and the were +6 at Houston and won
27-22 (11-point cover).
Barring surprises, the Giants won’t be a point-spread favorite until
Oct. 28 at the earliest when hosting the Redskins.
The Giants can spring an upset if they hold Brees to 250 passing yards or fewer in this potential Saints letdown spot. Cleveland held him to 218 passing yards in a divisional sandwich dynamic two weeks ago. The further above 250 passing yards Brees gets Sunday, the larger the margin of victory is likely to be for the road favorite.
