With March Madness looming, you’re going to hear a lot about power ratings and rankings, but don’t believe everything you see and read.

The same goes for the Alliance of American Football. Most “experts” have the 3-0 Birmingham Iron at the top of their rankings (or right below the 3-0 Orlando Apollos), with the 1-2 San Antonio Commanders in the bottom half of the eight-team developmental league. But I’m convinced Birmingham is fraudulent and San Antonio is its equal and a great bet at +7¹/₂ on Sunday.

Birmingham has the No. 1 defense in the AAF, but has benefited from facing Memphis and Atlanta — the two worst AAF teams by any measure — and Salt Lake, a decent but unimpressive team. Those three teams are a combined 1-5 in their other games.

Meanwhile, San Antonio has split two games with San Diego, which is 2-1 and moving up most rankings, with the Commanders’ other game being a Week 2 loss to Orlando in which they dominated most of the game before losing, 37-29.

That loss was more impressive in my book than anything Birmingham has accomplished. Besides, San Diego and Orlando are a perfect 3-0 when not facing San Antonio, so I see the Commanders as actually stepping down in class against the untested Iron.

I’m close to calling for the outright upset, because I definitely see value in San Antonio +280 on the money line, but the best bet is the Commanders plus the points in case Birmingham squeaks out a win at home.

The play: San Antonio Commanders, +7 ¹/₂.