The TPC Twin Cities, an Arnold Palmer design, will make its PGA Tour debut this week, hosting the 3M Open in Blaine, Minn. So we don’t have “course form” to go off of in our handicap, but we can look at a nearly 20-year sample size of competition from the Senior Tour. When we do, we find that Kenny Perry won at TPC Twin Cities three times, and he did it with Driving Distance and Birdie Average. For a pretty wide open, gettable track, hitting it long and making birdies makes perfect sense.

Adam Hadwin (-110) over Nate Lashley

Lashley is a tremendous story, winning his first PGA Tour event last week in Detroit, but with that comes a great deal of emotion as well as responsibility. I can’t believe it will all have truly sunk in and that life will be back to normal when Lashley tees it up this week in Minnesota. Not only this but I like Hadwin’s stats this week in the areas we are pointing to; 28th in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, 45th in Birdie Average, and 76th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Lashley matches him for the most part in the numbers, but not off of the tee. Lashley may find his footing as the tournament rolls on, but I will go against him in the opening round as his focus may not be where it needs to be right out of the gate — or at least not enough to better a viable contender in Hadwin.

Bryson DeChambeau (14/1): DeChambeau went through a spell earlier this season in which he missed three cuts in a row, but now we return to the time of the year in 2018 when he began to get scorching hot, and I think that could be the case again this season. He comes off of an eighth-place finish at The Travelers, and I like his style in a birdie-fest. He ranks fifth on Tour in Birdie Average, 34th in Strokes Gained: Putting, and 23rd in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. He also has good history at Palmer courses, taking second at Bay Hill in 2018. It’s a short price, but I expect him to have a shot on Sunday against a weaker field and a course that just may be in his wheelhouse.

Charles Howell III (40/1): Howell has probably played the best golf of his entire nearly two-decade career in the last two seasons. He’s 43rd on Tour in Driving Distance and Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, he’s 56th in Birdie Average and 54th in Strokes Gained: Putting. He took 15th earlier this season at Bay Hill and has only missed the cut there at Arnie’s place twice in 19 career visits.

Cameron Champ (75/1): Champ is maybe the epitome of our handicap this week; hit it a mile and make birdies. He ranks No. 1 on Tour in Driving Distance and fourth in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. He also pours in low numbers by ranking 65th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting and 19th in Birdie Average. With somewhat of a similar formula in play last week in Detroit, Champ was only one stroke off of the lead after 36 holes, shooting 66-65. He’ll need all four rounds in the 60s this week and I think he’s got a better chance of doing that than 80-1.