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We’ve already seen plenty of drama in the betting market for the New Orleans Bowl, which saw South Alabama laying more than a touchdown at one point before settling in as a 4.5-point favorite over Western Kentucky. I’m still siding with the favored Jaguars here in a college football matchup that plays to their strengths. 

This line ballooned when Hilltoppers quarterback Austin Reed — who ranks second nationally in passing yards (4,247) and fourth in touchdowns (36) — entered the transfer portal and seemed destined to start anew at Louisville. He’s since rebuffed that offer, but he still faces a daunting task against South Alabama’s 14th-ranked scoring defense (20.5 ppg), which also ranks fourth in rushing yards allowed per game (90.2) and 23rd in pass defense efficiency (118.23). 

The real mismatch comes on the other side. The Jaguars’ red-hot offense rarely turns it over and should see plenty of daylight against Western Kentucky, which leads the country in turnovers forced (30) but ranks 69th in total defense (380.8 YPG). That split could be the deciding factor: the Hilltoppers were 7-0 this season when they forced multiple turnovers and 1-5 when they didn’t. 

This is a clear showcase spot for South Alabama, which nearly knocked off UCLA earlier this year and has a chance to win its first bowl game in school history. The Jaguars boasted a top-25 scoring margin this season (plus-9.9) and are a solid bet to win here by a similar margin. 

South Alabama -4.5 (BetMGM)