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After a week off to take in the knockout heard around the world at UFC 278, we are back with Dana White’s Contender Series predictions and picks today. As usual, we have five fights on the docket, all of which hope to leave the UFC APEX center with a contract in hand.

The event begins at 8 p.m. ET and can be streamed on ESPN+.

Dana White’s Contender Series features amateur fighters who are raw but talented. These fights typically have a lot of variance and luck involved, so bet these fights responsibly.

At the time of writing, Bet365 and BetRivers had an extensive list of prop bets available, and every major sportsbook allows moneyline bets.

From Tristar MMA, Alex Morgan walks into Dana White’s Contender Series tonight as a -205 favorite against Blake Bilder. Bilder is going to be the smaller fighter in the octagon tonight, which could affect his ability to get takedowns — his best path to victory is by submission.

Bilder does cage-push quite a bit, which isn’t the most entertaining, but could tire Morgan out. Morgan has some very solid knockout power and has two victories over the UFCs TJ Laramie. Morgan also had an entertaining fight — a loss — against Charles Jourdain.

Bilder cannot get sucked into a striking match with Morgan. If he is able to avoid that, he should have a sizeable grappling advantage. Bilder’s back take is very solid, and if he gets there, he should submit Morgan pretty quick; Morgan has been submitted in three of his four losses. Bilder, at +200 on Caesars Sportsbook, is disrespectful to the CFFC featherweight champion.

Side note: It was fun listening to CM Punk commentate Bilder’s last fight.

A good old fashion wrestle fest could be on tap here as Mateusz Rebecki faces off against Rodrigo Lidio. Rebecki will likely shoot for a takedown immediately in this fight. In his lone loss, he dominated almost every minute of the fight, and his opponent had zero answers for his grappling. He was shockingly willing to drop down from top-half guard for a heel hook.

This was a tactical error and one he has not made since (12 fight winning streak).

While always hunting for the finish is admirable, dropping from top-half guard to a heel-hook is foolish in MMA and only acceptable in jiu-jitsu competitions. That loss was years ago, and he has finished nearly every opponent he has faced since.

Take Rebecki to win this fight for parlays, and a shot on wins in Round 3 at +900 isn’t a bad value either. Oftentimes, grapplers get late finishes as lactic acid builds up, and defending gets too tiresome.

Rebecki by KO/TKO or submission -120 (BetRivers) | Rebecki wins in Round 3 +900 (Bet365)