When the matchup came out for the Quick Lane Bowl (ESPN, 5:15 p.m.), I made Georgia Tech a lukewarm 3-point favorite over Minnesota. The opening line was -3 ¹/₂, so I mostly ignored it, but as bettors have been pushing the line higher (assumed to be mostly due to sentimental bets on this being Paul Johnson’s last game at Tech — and those bettors probably assuming his players will try to send him out with a win).

However, I’m not that sentimental except for liking to have my money on a disrespected underdog getting an inflated spread. The Golden Gophers don’t face many option teams, but they do hold their own against strong running offenses in the Big Ten and certainly have the better pass offense. This should be a coin-flip, so I’ll take the extra points.

Minnesota also falls into a longtime system play that says to bet a team that wins its regular-season finale to become bowl eligible (which the Golden Gophers did with an impressive 35-17 win at Wisconsin) as it usually carries that momentum into its bowl game. The system is 3-0 ATS already this bowl season with Tulane, BYU and Wake Forest.

The play: Minnesota +5 ¹/₂ (and hopefully +6 by kickoff).